Wall Street Doubled Big Tech Capex. SoftBank Pledged $87B in France. Korea's Power and HBM Order Books Just Got Thicker.

Investment Implications

Wall Street Doubled Big Tech Capex. SoftBank Pledged $87B in France. Korea's Power and Order Books Just Got Thicker.

Wall Street's 2026 Big Tech capex consensus nearly doubled from $365 billion to $725–805 billion, and SoftBank pledged an $87 billion data center campus in France. The IEA's view that data centers will absorb half of US power demand growth pulls forward the timetable that thickens both South Korea's power equipment exports and its HBM order book.

Wall Street's 2026 Big Tech capex consensus has been revised from last year's average of $365 billion to $725–805 billion, and per CNBC, Meta raised its AI capex guidance for the same year from $115–135 billion to $125–145 billion. SoftBank announced a €75 billion ($87 billion) investment in AI infrastructure—including a 3.1 GW data center campus in the Hauts-de-France region of northern France—running through 2031, and a parallel disclosure framed the same project as €45 billion ($53 billion) over five years, sending the stock 14% higher on the day. Japan's Kansai Electric Power separately said it will expand generating capacity by roughly 30% by 2040 and invest ¥15 trillion ($94 billion) in new plants—completing a picture, in the same week, of AI power capital that had been stuck inside the US now spilling over into Europe and Japan.

The power-side timetable is already tight. Per Carbon Brief, the IEA projects US electricity demand to grow at 2% annually from 2026 to 2030, with data centers absorbing half of that increase; per Scientific American, the US transmission interconnection queue had over 2,060 GW backed up as of late 2025, and substation upgrades for a 100 MW data center now run 4 to 7 years. The same bottleneck killed at least 20 US data centers in Q1 2026 amid community opposition—roughly $42 billion of capex and 3.5 GW of demand erased—pushing cumulative three-year cancellations and delays past $85 billion. Meanwhile, per Yonhap News, the South Korean government said it will expand financial support for large multi-year projects in nuclear, defense, and power equipment to KRW 127 trillion over the next five years. And per Nikkei Asia, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are signing multi-year contracts with customers amid a memory supply shortage, with both commodity DRAM and HBM demand rising on AI server capex—placing Korea directly at the order-intake gate.

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Taken together: on the industrial side, with Big Tech capex nearly doubling, the SoftBank France campus and Kansai Electric's LNG build are opening order lines in the same quarter—thickening both Korea's power equipment exports and its HBM supply lines. On capital flows, with $42 billion of US data centers vanishing the same quarter on community opposition, European and Japanese orders are filling that space, and Korea's KRW 127 trillion financing package sits directly at that order-intake gate. On the macro side, the IEA's projection and the 2,060 GW transmission queue align as signals of a multi-year infrastructure cycle, not a one-off capex burst—stretching the visibility of Korea's power equipment and HBM order books well beyond near-term quarterly results.

Asymmetric P&L Across Three Scenarios

Base — $725B Capex Line Holds — Even if the Big Tech consensus doesn't track to the top end ($805 billion), holding the $725 billion line means Korea's power equipment and HBM categories—with multi-year order visibility already partly priced in—have limited room for further upside, while the US transmission bottleneck plays out across its 4-to-7-year window as expected.
Disruption — US Data Center Cancellations Expand Past $85B Cumulative — If the $42 billion Q1 2026 cancellation pace repeats quarter after quarter, or if substation timelines slip toward the 7-year edge, the time-distribution of US capex stretches out and more order flow rotates to Europe and Japan—widening category-level quarterly variance in Korea's power equipment exports. Positions holding Korean industrials and semiconductors passively sit in a window where downside scenario exposure builds before the upside.
Acceleration — Europe and Japan Add Orders Beyond SoftBank's $87B — If Kansai Electric's ¥15 trillion ($94 billion) LNG line spreads to other Japanese utilities, or if the IEA's 2% annual power demand growth runs steeper than the data-center-takes-half framing implies, asymmetric upside opens up in Korean power equipment and HBM margins and backlogs—but the same flow stays locked inside the 4-to-7-year US transmission bottleneck, so price reflection spreads across multiple years.

Key Developments

Technology

Big Tech 2026 Capex Consensus Revised From Last Year's $365B to $725B–$805B

Wall Street's 2026 Big Tech capex consensus has been revised from last year's average of USD 365 billion to USD 725–805 billion. (Source: Trellis)

SoftBank Stock Rose 14% on $53B France AI Investment Announcement

SoftBank Group announced it will invest EUR 45 billion (USD 53 billion) over the next five years to build AI infrastructure in France, and its stock rose 14%. (Source: CNBC)

SoftBank to Invest €45B ($53B) in French AI Infrastructure Over Five Years

Japan's SoftBank Group announced plans to invest EUR 45 billion (USD 53 billion) in French AI infrastructure over the next five years. (Source: CNBC)

Korea AeroSpace Administration (KASA) Committed $266M to Launch Infrastructure Over Seven Years

The Korea AeroSpace Administration (KASA) has committed USD 266 million to building launch infrastructure over the seven years since its 2024 founding. (Source: TechCrunch)

SoftBank to Invest €75B ($87B) in 3.1 GW French Data Centers by 2031

SoftBank announced it will invest EUR 75 billion (USD 87 billion) by 2031 in AI infrastructure including 3.1 GW AI data centers in the Hauts-de-France region of northern France. (Source: CNBC)

Kansai Electric Plans 30% Generation Expansion and ¥15T ($94B) LNG Investment by 2040

Japan's Kansai Electric Power plans to expand generating capacity by roughly 30% and invest JPY 15 trillion (USD 94 billion) by 2040, with new LNG power plant construction underway. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

African EV Firm Spiro Raised $215M in Equity Investment

African electric vehicle company Spiro raised USD 215 million in equity investment to expand battery swapping and electric mobility infrastructure. (Source: Abcnews)

Economy

Over 220 "Fallen Unicorns" Saw Average 68% / 52% Value Declines per Pitchbook

According to Pitchbook, more than 220 US "fallen unicorns"—companies once valued above USD 1 billion but written down amid the absence of recent funding rounds—have seen declines averaging 68% for those last funded in 2021 and 52% for those last funded in 2022. (Source: CNBC)

Kalshi and Polymarket Monthly Volumes Grew From Under $5B in Sept 2025 to ~$24B in Apr 2026

According to Pew Research Center, monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under USD 5 billion in September 2025 to roughly USD 24 billion in April 2026. (Source: Fortune)

OECD Model Attributes 22% of Market Share Shifts to Subsidies; 60% for Chinese Firms

An OECD statistical model attributes 22% of market share movement from 2005 to 2023 to subsidies, with the share rising to 60% for Chinese firms. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Global Sand Mining Hits 50 Billion Tons Annually, Outpacing Natural Replenishment

The global sand mining industry extracts roughly 50 billion tons annually, outpacing the rate at which nature can replenish it, UNEP reported. (Source: Mongabay)

First 90 Days of the Iran War Lost 1B Barrels of Cumulative Crude Supply; Hormuz Throughput Down ~90%

Per Kpler data, in the three months following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began February 28, 2026, global crude oil supply has lost a cumulative 1 billion barrels, and Strait of Hormuz throughput has dropped roughly 90%. (Source: OilPrice)

Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Export Capacity Could Take Up to 5 Years to Recover

Qatar announced in March that LNG export capacity at its Ras Laffan complex could take up to five years to return to pre-war levels following Iranian missile damage. (Source: OilPrice)

US Q1 BNPL Usage Hit Record 15–17% for Households Earning Under $150K

Per Consumer Edge transaction data, US households earning under USD 150,000 annually used BNPL (buy now, pay later) at a record 15–17% rate in Q1, versus roughly 13% for households above USD 150,000. (Source: CNBC)

Politics

China's One-Year Campaign Flagged Over 66,000 Cases and Returned CNY 30.7B ($4.5B) to Businesses

China's one-year administrative law enforcement standardization campaign, which ended in March 2026, flagged more than 66,000 problem cases and helped businesses receive CNY 30.7 billion (USD 4.5 billion) in refunds. (Source: South China Morning Post)

USTR Opened a Section 301 Investigation Into Vietnam's IP Protection

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative opened a Section 301 investigation into Vietnam's intellectual property protection and enforcement on May 30, 2026. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Korea Fair Trade Commission Fined Trip.com KRW 10 Million

The Korea Fair Trade Commission fined Trip.com KRW 10 million for violating the e-commerce law by issuing refunds as airline vouchers in 13,010 cases totaling KRW 3.1 billion between February 2020 and July 2025. (Source: Yonhap News)

Environment

Mecca's May Average Temperature Has Risen ~3.5°C (6.3°F) Above Pre-Industrial Levels

Climate change has raised the average May temperature in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, by roughly 3.5°C (6.3°F) above pre-industrial levels. (Source: Mongabay)

Society

US Q1 Data Center Cancellations Erased $42B and 3.5 GW; Three-Year Cumulative Tops $85B

At least 20 US data centers were cancelled in Q1 2026 amid community opposition, erasing roughly USD 42 billion of capex and 3.5 GW of demand, with cumulative three-year cancellations and delays now exceeding USD 85 billion. (Source: Trellis)

Since 1990, an Average 37M People Every Five Years Have Migrated to More Democratic Countries—a "Democracy Drain"

Since 1990, an average of 37 million people every five years have migrated to substantially more democratic countries, a "democracy drain" that steadily depletes the democratic capital of their countries of origin. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

Mass General Brigham Study Estimates at Least 10M Undiagnosed Long COVID Cases in the US

A Mass General Brigham study published in JAMA Network Open in May 2026 estimates that at least 10 million people in the US have undiagnosed long COVID, with 16% of those infected showing long-term symptoms. (Source: WBUR)

DRC Suspected Ebola Cases Exceed 1,000 With ~250 Deaths

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, suspected Ebola cases exceeded 1,000 with roughly 250 deaths as of May 28, following the initial May 15, 2026, announcement. (Source: France 24)

India's C-Section Rate Rose From 22% to 27% Over Four Years

India's caesarean section rate rose from 22% to 27% over four years, with the C-section share in private facility deliveries rising from 47% to 54%. (Source: LiveMint)

India Adult Diabetes Prevalence Rose Over Four Years: Women 13.5%→17.8%, Men 15.6%→20.9%

Adult (15+) diabetes prevalence in India rose over four years from 13.5% to 17.8% in women and from 15.6% to 20.9% in men. (Source: LiveMint)

South African Adolescents Partnering With Men 5+ Years Older Rose From 39% in 2005 to 48% in 2017

In South Africa, partnerships between adolescents and men five or more years older rose from roughly 39% in 2005 to 48% in 2017. (Source: The Conversation Africa)