AI Token Costs Turn Into Opex at 300 Companies; Korea's Critical-Mineral Reliance on China Hits 94%
Companies flagging AI token costs on earnings calls tripled from 93 to 300, and China's share of South Korea's indium imports widened to 94.2%. ChatGPT's market share fell below 50% for the first time, to 46.4%.
Investment Implications
300 Companies Flagged AI Token Costs. RBC's Usage Jumped 500%. Inference Spending Is Now Etched Into Earnings.
The number of companies flagging AI token costs on earnings calls more than tripled in a single year, from 93 to 300, and one large bank watched its token usage jump 500% in six months. That's a signal that AI is starting to get written into corporate P&L not as a build-it-once capital expenditure but as an operating cost that recurs every quarter—so investors now have to weigh the margins of the companies using the models alongside the revenue of the companies selling the tokens.
Across earnings calls from April through May 2026, roughly 300 companies flagged AI token costs—up from just 93 in the same stretch a year earlier. The CEO of Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) disclosed that the bank's own AI token usage had surged 500% over the past six months. Unlike a build-it-once capital expenditure, token costs have started landing in corporate earnings as an operating expense that gets rebilled every quarter.
As the buyers foot the bill, the sellers are stacking up revenue. In-app spending on AI apps reached USD 4.2 billion in the first half, well above the USD 1.83 billion in the same period a year ago, and demand itself has thickened: ChatGPT now counts 1.1 billion monthly active users, Gemini 662 million, and Claude 245 million.
The same shows up on the infrastructure side: Anthropic has agreed to pay xAI USD 1.25 billion a month for compute and Google to pay SpaceX USD 920 million a month, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sees demand for AI infrastructure topping USD 1 trillion by 2027. The setup—where the buyer's cost is the seller's revenue—shows up on both sides at once.
So the asset that's splitting more sharply right now is the AI infrastructure supply chain. Token costs at the companies running the models cut straight into quarterly margins, but the semiconductor, data center, and compute-equipment players that take those payments and turn them into revenue sit in a stretch where multi-year demand is still underpriced—the kind pointed to by both the trillion-dollar demand forecast and long-term deals worth more than a billion dollars a month.
What's in today's price, and what isn't.
- What's already priced in — The growth in AI demand itself is broadly reflected, through USD 4.2 billion in app spending and users in the billions.
- What's just becoming visible — The fact that token costs are not a one-time investment but an operating expense rebilled every quarter is only now starting to register in earnings.
- What's still underpriced — The multi-year, supply-side revenue implied by trillion-dollar infrastructure demand and long-term compute deals worth more than a billion dollars a month has not been fully priced in.
Key Developments
Technology
Non-Human Identities Now Outnumber Human Users 45 to 1 Inside the Enterprise
Non-human identities—the credentials, keys, and machine accounts used by AI agents, scripts, and automated workflows—are multiplying to a 45-to-1 ratio against human users, becoming a major cybersecurity vulnerability. (Source: Thenextweb)
Companies Citing AI Token Costs on Earnings Calls Jump From 93 to 300 Year on Year
Roughly 300 companies flagged AI token costs on their April–May 2026 earnings calls, more than triple the 93 from the same period a year earlier. It's a signal that token costs are entering earnings not as a one-time capital expenditure but as an operating cost booked again every quarter. (Source: Wired)
Mobileye to Launch With 100 Robotaxis in the US in 2027
Mobileye has announced plans to launch a roughly 100-vehicle robotaxi service in the US in 2027 and to scale it to about 17,000 vehicles within five years. It lays out both the opening volume and the expansion path for commercializing autonomous driving. (Source: Channelnewsasia)
Google Secures Up to 50 MW of Small Nuclear Power for Its Data Centers
In August 2025, Google formed a partnership with Kairos Power and the Tennessee Valley Authority to receive up to 50 MW of clean small-nuclear power for its data centers in Alabama and Tennessee. It shows how data center power sourcing is broadening into nuclear. (Source: Techradar)
Australia's Data Center Pipeline Nears 20 GW, Pulling 50 GW of Renewables With It
According to a BNEF report, Australia's data center pipeline runs to about 20 GW, with roughly 50 GW of solar, storage, and wind expected to be added over the next eight years. It's a structure in which data center power demand and renewable buildout move bundled together. (Source: RenewEconomy)
Anthropic and Google Sign Compute Deals Worth Over $1 Billion a Month
Anthropic has signed a deal to pay SpaceX's xAI unit USD 1.25 billion a month for compute, and Google has struck a short-term compute deal to pay SpaceX USD 920 million a month. AI infrastructure costs are settling into long-running monthly billing. (Source: TechCrunch)
ChatGPT's Market Share Slips Below 50% for the First Time
According to Sensor Tower's 2026 AI report, ChatGPT's global market share fell below 50% for the first time, to 46.4% as of the end of May 2026. At the same point, Gemini stood at 27.7% and Claude at 10.3%. (Source: TechCrunch)
Economy
South Korea's Critical-Mineral Imports Top 99.7% Dependence, With China's Share as High as 94.2%
South Korea's import dependence for critical minerals tops 99.7%, and across the six key minerals—gallium, germanium, antimony, indium, graphite, and tungsten—China's share of imports runs from 14.8% to 94.2%. The figures lay bare the structural risk of a supply chain tilted to one side. (Source: The Diplomat)
After China's Gallium Controls, South Korea Diversifies Suppliers as China's Share Falls 73.6% to 26.0%
After China announced export controls on gallium and germanium in August 2023, China's share of South Korea's gallium imports plunged from 73.6% in 2024 to 26.0% in 2025. The gap was spread across Germany at 25.9%, the US at 24.3%, and Japan at 18.2%. (Source: The Diplomat)
Indium and Graphite Go the Other Way as China Dependence Deepens
China's share of South Korea's indium imports actually rose, from 44.1% in 2015 to 94.2% in 2025, while graphite ran the other way, from 52.4% to 71.0%—and in 2025 those imports were worth USD 86.5 million and USD 207.2 million, respectively. (Source: The Diplomat)
UAE's Exit Strips Roughly 15% From Production Capacity
With the UAE formally leaving OPEC in May 2026, roughly 15% of OPEC's production capacity walked out the door, structurally weakening the cartel's sway over the market. (Source: OilPrice)
US Supreme Court Approves Rio Grande Water Compact, Forcing Farmland Buyouts
With the US Supreme Court approving an interstate water compact along the lower Rio Grande, New Mexico must buy out and retire 9,200 acres of irrigated farmland over the next decade. It's a case of the water burden in a desert region where data centers are moving in turning into administrative and legal costs. (Source: NPR)
UK Aluminum Scrap Exports Rise 43% to 620,000 Tons in 2025
UK exports of aluminum waste and scrap reached 624,314 tons in 2025, up 43% from 2016, while exports to India nearly doubled over the same period to 198,779 tons. The flow of recyclable feedstock leaking overseas is becoming pronounced. (Source: Circularonline)
Make UK Projects Roughly 8 Million Tons of Aluminum Demand by 2035
Make UK estimates that UK aluminum demand will reach roughly 8 million tons by 2035, and that meeting it would require the recycled aluminum scrap sector to grow 25% a year. (Source: Circularonline)
Politics
Russia's Shadow Fleet of Hundreds of Tankers Skirts Sanctions
To skirt sanctions, Russia is running a shadow fleet of hundreds of tankers, dodging enforcement through falsified shipping registrations, changes in ownership structure, and GPS jamming. Sanctions dent Russia's revenue but fall short of halting its oil exports outright. (Source: Al Jazeera)
Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials Jump From 193 in 2009 to 507 in 2023
The number of export-restriction measures on global industrial raw materials surged from 193 in 2009 to 507 in 2023. An analysis by South Korea's Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) argues that, absent binding international cooperation, a non-binding alone cannot guarantee supply chain security. (Source: The Diplomat)
South Korea Plans to Deliver 120 KF-21 Fighters by 2032
South Korea plans to deliver 120 KF-21 fighter jets by 2032. An initial 40 aircraft focused on air-to-air capability will be delivered by 2028, followed by 80 more that add air-to-ground and air-to-ship capability. (Source: Yonhap News)
B-52 Bomber Crashes, Killing All Eight on Board
On June 15, 2026, a B-52 Stratofortress bomber crashed shortly after takeoff at Edwards Air Force Base in California, killing all eight people on board. The aircraft was on a radar-modernization test mission. (Source: South China Morning Post)
US-Iran MoU Opens a 60-Day Window for Follow-On Talks
Following the US-Iran MoU, follow-on talks over the nuclear program and sanctions relief will run for 60 days. (Source: Al Jazeera)
Trump Administration Orders Dismantling of a $386M Ocean Observation Program
The Trump administration has directed the National Science Foundation (NSF) to dismantle a USD 386 million ocean observation initiative, ordering that monitoring equipment off Oregon, Washington, Alaska, North Carolina, and Greenland be removed by 2027. (Source: Mongabay)
A $300B Iran Reconstruction Fund Is Discussed; Trump Denies It
A US official said an Iran peace agreement covered the release of frozen funds, sanctions relief, and the possibility of a USD 300 billion Iran reconstruction fund, and Vice President Vance confirmed as much in a CBS interview, conditioned on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) financing. Trump, however, denied it. (Source: The Hill)
Environment
Microsoft's Retirement Plans Hold More Than $2B in High-Carbon Investments
According to As You Sow's corporate 401(k) sustainability scorecard, Microsoft's retirement plans hold more than USD 2 billion in high-carbon sector investments. It shows that the next front in corporate decarbonization is retirement-plan assets. (Source: Trellis)
Society
Switzerland's Foreign-Born Share Nears One-Third as Its Population Grows by More Than a Quarter in a Generation
Switzerland's foreign-born share now stands at about one-third of the total population, and over the past generation the population has grown by more than a quarter. The figures form the backdrop to a referendum over a population cap. (Source: NPR)
46% of South Koreans in Their 20s Have Read Their Fortunes via an AI Chatbot
A Korea Gallup survey found that 46% of South Koreans in their 20s have used an AI chatbot to check their fortunes. It's a glimpse of how deeply AI chatbots have moved into everyday life. (Source: MIT Technology Review)
Trust in AI Chatbot News Sits at 20%, but Weekly Use Is Climbing
A Reuters Institute survey of roughly 100,000 people across 48 markets found trust in social media at 22% and trust in AI chatbot news at 20%, both below trust in news overall. Weekly use of AI chatbots, by contrast, rose from 7% to 10%, and to 16% among those under 35. (Source: BBC World)
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