Custom ASICs Up 44.6%, Cracking Nvidia's 70% AI Chip Grip

Investment Implications

Custom ASICs Up 44.6%. Nvidia's 70% AI Chip Grip Is Cracking.

Custom ASIC shipments are growing 44.6% YoY — roughly 3x merchant GPU's 16.1% pace — shaking Nvidia's ~70% grip on AI chips. TSMC is doubling CoWoS advanced packaging capacity to 120,000-130,000 wafers per month in 2026, while in Korea, FuriosaAI enters its first full-scale revenue gate at KRW 100 billion through LG and Samsung SDS contracts.

Hyperscalers' self-designed custom ASICs are projected to ship 44.6% more units in 2026 versus the prior year. That's nearly triple merchant GPU's 16.1% growth rate, and ASIC-based AI server shipments are set to capture 27.8% of the 2026 market — the highest share since 2023. Nvidia still holds roughly 70% of the AI chip market, but as Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI pour billions of dollars into chips tailored to their own workloads, that grip is entering the erosion phase.

Supply infrastructure, by contrast, is consolidating around a single company. TSMC posted USD 122.4 billion in 2025 revenue — up 36% year-on-year — and projects AI chip revenue to grow at a 60% CAGR through 2029. CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is roughly doubling, from 75,000 wafers per month in 2025 to 130,000 in 2026. Since advanced AI accelerators — whether ASIC or GPU — ultimately pass through the same packaging bottleneck, the foundry layer is pointing in one direction even as market share gets redistributed. Nvidia has declared that the world is rebuilding computing wholesale for agentic AI and physical AI, with the Vera CPU at the center of it; whoever does the talking, the direction of the infrastructure reshuffle points the same way.

In Korea, FuriosaAI — the country's homegrown AI chip startup — signed a semiconductor supply deal with the LG Group in February 2026, and Samsung SDS plans to adopt FuriosaAI's products starting in July. The company expects to enter its first full-scale revenue stage in 2026 since founding, with projected annual revenue of KRW 100 billion (approximately USD 67 million). Pulling industry, capital, and macro together: AI accelerator market share is dispersing from merchant GPUs to custom ASICs, capital is concentrating into a single company through TSMC's CoWoS capacity doubling, and Korea is taking a step out of outsourced GPU dependence toward its own designed AI chip revenue gate. The first branch is the path where LG and Samsung SDS adoption rolls into full-scale revenue on schedule, drawing Korea's first meaningful revenue curve in AI semiconductors. The second is the path where TSMC's CoWoS expansion slips behind its planned pace, slowing ASIC's erosion of Nvidia below expectations. We tie Korea's non-memory AI semiconductors and the global advanced packaging supply chain into a single thread.

Key Developments

Technology

FuriosaAI Hits First Full-Scale Revenue Stage at KRW 100B With LG, Samsung SDS Deals in 2026

LG Group signed a semiconductor procurement contract with FuriosaAI in February 2026, and Samsung SDS plans to deploy FuriosaAI's products starting July 2026. FuriosaAI expects its first full-scale annual revenue of KRW 100 billion (approximately USD 67 million) in 2026 — the company's first since founding. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Custom ASIC Shipments Grow 44.6% YoY in 2026, Eating Into Nvidia's 70% Dominance

Nvidia controls roughly 70% of the AI chip market, but that share is being chipped away. Custom ASIC shipments are projected to grow 44.6% year-on-year in 2026 — about triple merchant GPU's 16.1% pace. ASIC-based AI server shipments are set to reach 27.8% of the 2026 market, the highest share since 2023. (Source: Tomshardware)

TSMC Hits $122.4B in 2025 Revenue, Doubles CoWoS Capacity in 2026

TSMC posted USD 122.4 billion in 2025 revenue, up 36% year-on-year, with AI chip revenue projected to grow at a 60% CAGR through 2029. CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is set to roughly double, from 65,000-75,000 wafers per month in 2025 to 120,000-130,000 wafers per month in 2026. (Source: Tomshardware)

Ukraine Produces 1,000+ Interceptor Drones Daily, Downs 30,000 Russian Drones

Ukraine is producing over 1,000 interceptor drones daily on home soil. In March 2026 alone, it downed more than 30,000 Russian drones, according to tallies. (Source: BBC World)

Ukraine's Drone Interception Rate Climbs From 55% to 94%

Ukraine's drone interception rate improved from 55% in May 2025 to 94% in May 2026. The AI- and sensor-fusion-based Sky Map system, paired with the low-cost P1-SUN interceptor drone priced at around USD 1,000, was the key factor closing the gap. (Source: BBC World)

xAI's Capex Surges to $7.7B in Q1 2026 Alone, Annualizing to $30.8B

xAI, the SpaceX-affiliated AI venture, saw capex surge from USD 12.7 billion in 2025 to USD 7.7 billion in Q1 2026 alone — annualizing to USD 30.8 billion, more than double the prior year. (Source: TechCrunch)

Industrial Inspection Robots Cut 1,200 Tons of CO2 Annually at Cement Plants

Heavy industry sites that deployed autonomous inspection robots cut worker exposure to hazardous environments by 70% to 90%. ANYbotics technology, deployed at cement plants to detect and repair compressed-air leaks, delivered annual CO2 emissions cuts of 1,200 tons. (Source: Interestingengineering)

Economy

Standard Chartered to Eliminate 8,000 Corporate Functional Jobs Over 4 Years, Swapping Human Capital for Financial Capital

Standard Chartered plans to eliminate roughly 8,000 corporate functional positions over the next four years. CEO Bill Winters described the move as "replacing low-value human capital with financial and investment capital." (Source: Businesstimes)

SK On Lays Off 968 at Georgia Battery Plant, Reflecting North American EV Demand Slowdown

SK On laid off 968 workers at its Georgia battery plant in March 2026. Slowing EV demand and policy uncertainty under the Trump administration are pressuring the North American EV battery market. (Source: Yonhap News)

China Controls Over 80% of Global Rare Earth Refining, Tightens Export Controls

China dominates over 80% of global rare earth refining capacity. Beijing's tightened export controls are accelerating efforts by Western governments and manufacturers to secure alternative supply sources. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

BYD's Share Jumps From 0.6% to 5.3%, Geely Overtakes All Japanese Automakers Except Toyota

BYD's global market share jumped from 0.6% in 2020 to 5.3% in 2025. Geely, with a 4.5% share, has overtaken every Japanese automaker except Toyota. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Microsoft Pushes Up to 5GW Natural Gas Plant for Texas Data Centers

Microsoft is pushing forward with up to a 5GW natural gas plant for Texas data centers, in partnership with Chevron and Engine No. 1. The setup exposes how AI data center power demand collides with the company's carbon-neutral commitments. (Source: TechCrunch)

Meta Reassigns 7,000 to AI Divisions Alongside Layoffs, Cancels 6,000 Unfilled Positions

Meta reassigned 7,000 employees to AI-focused divisions alongside layoffs, while canceling 6,000 unfilled positions. The AI-centered restructuring continues with 1,000 layoffs at Reality Labs in January 2026 and several hundred more in March. (Source: CNBC)

US Credit Card 90-Day Delinquency Hits 13.1%, Highest Since 2010

The US credit card 90-day-plus delinquency rate reached 13.1%, the highest since Q4 2010. Auto loan delinquency hit an all-time high of 5.6%, student loan 90-day-plus delinquency stood at 10.3%, and the mortgage rate climbed to 6.75% — the highest since July 2025. (Source: Nakedcapitalism)

Environment

14,000 Communities Join Global Mayors Pact as City-Level Climate Action Scales

Some 14,000 communities worldwide have joined the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, implementing carbon reduction and climate adaptation strategies. 145 cities across 52 countries are participating in the Urban Transitions Mission. (Source: Trend.az)

Politics

Trump Administration Pushes Development Conversion of 90 Million Acres of Public Land

Roughly 90 million acres of US public land — 15% of the 600 million-acre total — are exposed to development threats under the Trump administration's policy shift. In Arizona, a Native American sacred site was handed over to a copper mining company; in Utah, a provision selling 3.2 million acres of public land was inserted into the federal budget bill. (Source: Inside Climate News)

17 Chinese Companies Operate in Occupied Ukraine as Yuanization Spreads

At least 17 Chinese companies are operating in Russia-occupied Ukrainian territories, where roughly 6,000 Chinese-made mobile relay base stations have been installed. The occupied region's economy has reportedly been "completely yuanised," with the yuan circulating through 79 banks. (Source: Al Jazeera)

US Submarine Production Stuck at 1.1/Year, Half the Target, Shaking AUKUS Timeline

US submarine production stands at 1.1 vessels per year — about half the Navy's target of 2.2 to 2.3 per year. This is raising uncertainty around the schedule for delivering three Virginia-class submarines to Australia under the AUKUS agreement. (Source: The Diplomat)

Matsu Islands Undersea Cable Cuts Hit 20+ Incidents in 5 Years

Taiwan's Matsu Islands have experienced more than 20 undersea cable cut incidents over the past five years, with a recurring pattern of Chinese vessels operating in the vicinity. (Source: The Diplomat)

US Imposes 10% Tariff Under Section 122 for 150 Days Starting February 24, 2026

Starting February 24, 2026, the US is imposing a 10% additional tariff on all imports for 150 days under Section 122. The move follows the Supreme Court's invalidation of the reciprocal tariff ruling, shifting the administration to a new tariff instrument. (Source: Economic Times India)

Italian Chamber of Deputies Delays Coal Power Phase-Out From 2025 to 2038, Extending by 13 Years

Italy's Chamber of Deputies voted to push back the country's complete coal power phase-out deadline from 2025 to 2038 — a 13-year extension. The 2017 phase-out commitment was reversed, citing geopolitical tensions in Western Asia and oil supply shortages. (Source: OilPrice)

China Supplies 80% of Pakistan's Arms Imports, Up From 73% Five Years Ago

China supplies 80% of Pakistan's arms imports, up from 73% five years ago. Pakistan's total arms imports themselves jumped 66% between 2021 and 2025, and the Pakistani military deployed Chinese-made weapons — including J-10C fighter jets — in the May 2025 India-Pakistan combat. (Source: Al Jazeera)

Society

Half of Gen Z Uses AI Weekly, But Negative Sentiment Is Rising

Gallup's latest Gen Z survey confirms rising negative sentiment toward AI, alongside declining excitement and hope. Roughly half of Gen Z uses AI daily or weekly. (Source: Associated Press)

Foreign-Born Workers Hold Two-Thirds of Silicon Valley's 400,000 Tech Jobs

Foreign-born workers hold two-thirds of Silicon Valley's roughly 400,000 tech jobs. By nationality, the 2025 Joint Venture Silicon Valley report shows India at 23%, China at 18%, and the US at 34%. (Source: Realclearinvestigations)

Africa's Median Age Climbs From 19 to 35 by 2100, Joining the Global Aging Curve

Africa's median age is projected to climb from roughly 19 today to 35 by 2100. The share of population aged 65 and over is expected to more than triple to about 15%, signaling that Africa is beginning to join the global aging trend. (Source: Pew Research Center)