India's Gold Quadruples, Won Weakness Funnels Hedge Demand Into Real Assets

Investment Implications

India's Gold Quadrupled. The Import Tariff Jumped to 15%. The Currency-Hedge Bid Is Crowding Into Hard Assets.

India's 24-karat gold has jumped from roughly 26,000 rupees per 10 grams in 2015 to more than 100,000 rupees last year, prompting the government to raise import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% to ease the strain on its foreign reserves — and central banks worldwide are buying gold faster than they were a year ago. With the won now past 1,500 to the dollar for 16 straight sessions, the question worth watching is where the money hedging against a weakening currency goes next.

India's average 24-karat gold price climbed from about 26,000 rupees per 10 grams in 2015 to roughly 78,000 in 2024 and past 100,000 last year. As prices ran up, the Indian government raised import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15% to lighten the load on its foreign-exchange reserves. The same directional pull shows up at central banks — according to Nikkei Asia, central banks worldwide bought gold 3% faster than a year earlier, and the People's Bank of China (PBOC) picked up about 8 tonnes in April alone, its largest monthly haul in 16 months, after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

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Behind households buying physical metal, governments defending their reserves with tariffs, and central banks stockpiling lies a single unease: a fading faith in the purchasing power of one's own currency. For Korean investors — who watched the won hold above 1,500 to the dollar for 16 straight sessions through Tuesday — that unease is not someone else's problem. The money looking to hedge currency weakness heads first into precious metals and hard assets, because demand from households, governments, and central banks is converging there at the same time and in the same direction.

Here's where today's numbers cut differently depending on your portfolio:

If you're heavy in won-denominated assets with no FX or hard-asset hedge — 16 straight sessions at 1,500 to the dollar is the variable inflating the purchasing-power loss hidden behind your nominal returns, and real assets like gold and precious metals act as a buffer that offsets part of that loss.
If you already hold some gold or precious metals — India's tariff hike and central-bank buying mean the demand propping up prices has widened beyond households to governments and monetary authorities, shifting the case for holding from short-term price momentum to structural demand.

Key Developments

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