Global Defense Spending Hits USD 2.89 Trillion Record, KF-21 and Chunmoo Production Lock In Korea's Multi-Year Defense Cycle | May 15, 2026

SIPRI reports 2025 global military spending at USD 2.89 trillion in its 11th straight record year; KAI locks in a 120-jet KF-21 Phase 1 and Phase 2 production schedule; Japan deploys JPY 3.5 trillion across TSMC and Rapidus semiconductor subsidies

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Investment Implications

Defense Spending Hit a Record. Korea Already Locked In Phase Two.

Global military spending hit USD 2.89 trillion in 2025 by SIPRI's count — the 11th consecutive annual record. South Korea is already inside the cycle: KAI has 40 KF-21 jets pinned down for Phase 1 and 80 more for Phase 2, and the country just inked a 10-year Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher deal with Estonia. Add Japan's expanding domestic semiconductor subsidies, and what you have is allied supply-chain rewiring lifting multi-year cash-flow visibility across Korean and Japanese defense names.

SIPRI clocked 2025 global military spending at USD 2.89 trillion, the 11th straight record. Sitting in the middle of that cycle, Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) has already locked in delivery of 40 KF-21 Phase 1 jets to the Republic of Korea Air Force by 2028, with another 80 Phase 2 aircraft carrying long-range air-to-ground missiles slated for production through 2032. According to Yonhap News, the Korean and Estonian governments signed an agreement in December 2025 to supply Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers over a decade, with the first contract alone running USD 350 million for six launchers bundled with three types of missiles.

Japan is pushing capital in the same direction over a similar window. Aiming to lift domestic semiconductor sales to JPY 40 trillion by 2040, Tokyo has already deployed roughly JPY 1.2 trillion in cumulative support to TSMC's Kumamoto plant and about JPY 2.3 trillion to Rapidus. Nippon Steel, meanwhile, has earmarked some USD 11 billion for U.S. Steel through 2028, with USD 1.9 billion of that going specifically to electric arc furnace feedstock facilities. The allied bloc is now treating semiconductors and steel as a single package — and the backdrop is China's mature-node semiconductor capacity expanding more than four times faster than global demand growth from 2015 to 2023.

The upshot: Korea's defense sector is no longer sitting on one-off export wins. It's sitting inside the allied supply-chain reshuffle with multi-year revenue visibility. The global defense cycle has now run 11 years in one direction, and KF-21 and Chunmoo production schedules are already pinned down in 2028, 2032, and 10-year units. That's why Korean defense is worth watching right now.


Key Developments

Technology

KAI to Deliver 40 KF-21 Phase 1 Air-to-Air Jets to South Korea's Air Force by 2028

Korea Aerospace Industries has finalized a schedule to deliver 40 KF-21 Phase 1 jets — configured primarily for air-to-air missions — to the Republic of Korea Air Force by 2028. It's the opening beat of multi-year production visibility for Korean defense as allied supply chains reshape. (Source: Yonhap News)

KF-21 Phase 2 to Add 80 Jets With Long-Range Air-to-Ground Missiles Through 2032

KF-21 Phase 2 production calls for an additional 80 jets fitted with long-range air-to-ground missiles, with delivery scheduled through 2032. (Source: Yonhap News)

Fed SHED: 25% of U.S. Workers Used Generative AI at Work, 81% of Users Report Time Savings

According to the Federal Reserve's SHED report, a quarter of U.S. workers used generative AI at work in the past month, and 81% of users said it saved them time. Corporate AI adoption is now showing up in labor-market data on the productivity side for the first time. (Source: Federal Reserve)

Legal-Tech SaaS Clio's ARR Steps Up From USD 200M to USD 400M to USD 500M Post-AI

Legal-tech SaaS Clio's annual recurring revenue stepped up from USD 200 million in mid-2024 to USD 400 million by late 2025 to USD 500 million in May 2026, all in the wake of its 2023 AI rollout. (Source: TechCrunch)

China's Mature-Node Semiconductor Capacity Expanded More Than 4x Faster Than Global Demand From 2015 to 2023

According to a November 2025 report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, China's mature-node semiconductor capacity expanded more than four times faster than the global demand CAGR between 2015 and 2023. It's the backdrop variable for the allied bloc pulling out legacy-chip subsidy tools again. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Anthropic's Enterprise Share Climbs From 9% to 34.4% Over 12 Months — Up 26 pp; OpenAI Slips 1%

Anthropic's enterprise customer share climbed from 9% in May 2025 to 34.4% in May 2026 — roughly 26 percentage points higher — while OpenAI's share slipped 1% over the same span. (Source: TechCrunch)

Japan Targets JPY 40 Trillion in Chip Sales by 2040, With JPY 1.2 Trillion to TSMC and JPY 2.3 Trillion to Rapidus

Japan's government has rolled out roughly JPY 1.2 trillion in cumulative support to TSMC's Kumamoto plant and about JPY 2.3 trillion to Rapidus, working toward a target of lifting domestic semiconductor sales to JPY 40 trillion by 2040. It's Japan's pillar of the allied push to reshore production at both legacy and advanced nodes. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Economy

Nippon Steel to Invest USD 11 Billion in U.S. Steel by 2028, With USD 1.9 Billion for Electric Arc Furnace Feedstock

Nippon Steel plans to invest about USD 11 billion in U.S. Steel through 2028, with USD 1.9 billion earmarked specifically for electric arc furnace feedstock facilities. It's a textbook case of allied steel capital flowing back into U.S. soil. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Goldman Sachs Economists Project AI Automation Will Affect Roughly 300 Million Jobs Globally

Goldman Sachs economists estimate that AI-driven automation will affect roughly 300 million jobs worldwide. The number marks the point at which AI adoption is starting to flow into macro labor-demand models. (Source: Economic Times India)

Cornell Study: U.S. AI Data Centers Could Add 24 Million Tons of GHG Emissions and Consume 731 Million Cubic Meters of Water Annually

A Cornell University analysis projects that the rapid expansion of U.S. AI data centers will add 24 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions annually and consume at least 731 million cubic meters of water. It's the moment when the external costs of AI infrastructure investment are starting to get quantified. (Source: Trellis)

Honda Pivots: 15 Next-Gen Hybrids by FY2030, Annual Sales Target Raised to 2.5 Million Units

Honda announced a strategic pivot: by FY2030 (ending March 2031), it plans to roll out 15 next-generation hybrid models globally and raise its annual hybrid sales target to 2.5 million units. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Foreign M&A Share of Japan-Targeted Deals Climbs From 2% in the Bubble Era to 7–8%; Deal Count Up 16x

Foreign acquisitions as a share of M&A deals targeting Japanese firms have climbed from about 2% in the bubble era to a recent 7–8%, with deal count up 16x. The weak yen meeting governance reform signals Japanese assets are back on the foreign-capital radar. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Australia's 8GW New England Renewable Energy Zone to Generate 6,000 Construction and 2,000 Operations Jobs

Australia's New England Renewable Energy Zone, at over 8GW in scale, is projected to create 6,000 construction jobs and 2,000 operations jobs. The power-infrastructure reshuffle is now translating into regional employment statistics. (Source: RenewEconomy)

India Accelerates 2,000 km Oman–India Subsea Gas Pipeline, USD 4.7–4.8 Billion, Targeting 5–7 Year Completion

India is accelerating plans for a 2,000-kilometer, roughly USD 4.7–4.8 billion deep-sea gas pipeline between Oman and India (MEIDP) in response to the Hormuz crisis, with completion expected in five to seven years. Energy supply-route diversification is now showing up as concrete infrastructure capex. (Source: Economic Times India)

Politics

SIPRI: 2025 Global Military Spending Hits USD 2.89 Trillion, 11th Straight Record Year

According to SIPRI, global military spending hit a record USD 2.89 trillion in 2025, marking the 11th straight year of increase. It's the most direct indicator that the defense cycle is structural, not episodic. (Source: CNBC)

Chinese A-Share Firms' Government Subsidies Fall 8.6% YoY in 2025 to CNY 189.1 Billion

Total government subsidies to Chinese A-share listed firms fell 8.6% year-over-year in 2025 to CNY 189.1 billion, extending the decline from a 2022 peak. The signal: the property crisis crushing local-government land-sale revenue is now bleeding into industrial subsidies. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

South Korea Raises Maximum Fine for Illegal EEZ Fishing 5x — From KRW 300M to KRW 1.5B (USD 1M)

South Korea raised the maximum fine for foreign vessels fishing illegally in its Exclusive Economic Zone fivefold — from KRW 300 million to KRW 1.5 billion (about USD 1 million) — under a revised EEZ fisheries law that took effect Tuesday. It's another institutional step in the maritime-sovereignty and resource-management push. (Source: Yonhap News)

South Korea's Coast Guard Seized 57 Illegal Chinese Fishing Vessels Last Year, Highest Annual Total Since 2021

South Korea's Coast Guard seized 57 illegal Chinese fishing vessels last year — the highest annual total since 66 were captured in 2021. Combined with the fine hike, enforcement intensity is ratcheting up again. (Source: Yonhap News)

Trump Administration's Early-2025 CDC Cuts of Roughly 10% Hit Epidemiologists and Scientific Staff

The Trump administration cut roughly 10% of CDC staff in early 2025, reducing the ranks of epidemiologists and scientific personnel. Structurally weakened public-health administrative capacity may come back later as infectious-disease response costs. (Source: CNBC)

Society

WHO: New HIV Infections Fell 40% From 2010 to 2024; Tobacco and Alcohol Consumption Down in Tandem

According to a WHO report, new HIV infections fell 40% between 2010 and 2024, while tobacco and alcohol consumption declined over the same period. Global health indicators continue their long-run improvement trend. (Source: The Hindu)

U.S. Overdose Deaths Around 70,000 in 2025, Down ~14% YoY for Third Straight Year of Decline

U.S. drug overdose deaths totaled roughly 70,000 in 2025, down about 14% year-over-year and marking the third straight year of decline. It's the longest run of declines in decades — a function of public-health policy and shifts in the drug supply chain working in concert. (Source: PBS)

School Screen-Time Bills Introduced in 14 U.S. States; 4 States Already Enacted

In the United States, bills restricting screen time in schools have been introduced in at least 14 states, with Alabama, Tennessee, Utah, and Iowa already enacting them. The policy clock on classroom digital tools is moving fast. (Source: Denver7)

266,000 Chinese Students Study in the U.S.; American Students in China Collapse to 1,749

In 2024–25, 265,919 Chinese students were studying in the United States, while American students in China dropped to 1,749 in 2023–24 — down from more than 11,600 in 2017–18. The asymmetry in U.S.–China people-to-people exchange is moving back into the policy picture. (Source: The Diplomat)

Full-Time Jobs for Hong Kong College Graduates Plunge 61% — From 80,000 in 2022 to 31,000 in 2025

Full-time jobs suitable for university graduates in Hong Kong fell from roughly 80,000 in 2022 to about 31,000 in 2025 — a 61% drop. The figures, disclosed by Hong Kong's Secretary for Labour and Welfare, point to AI adoption and economic pressure as the main drivers. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Environment

Trucks and Buses Are 8% of All Vehicles But Account for 35% of Road-Transport CO2

Globally, trucks and buses make up only about 8% of vehicles but generate 35% of road-transport CO2 emissions. It's the structural indicator of where transport-sector decarbonization leverage actually sits. (Source: MIT Technology Review)

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