Tungsten Up 50%, Helium Doubled — The Supply Shocks Beyond Oil

Investment Implications

Oil Gets All the Attention. The Real Squeeze Is in Tungsten and Helium.

Markets are fixated on crude oil above $100 a barrel, but tungsten — essential to semiconductor manufacturing — has surged more than 50% in a single month, and helium prices have doubled since the war began. With the Iran war and Chinese export restrictions working in tandem, supply chains for smaller, harder-to-replace materials are breaking down before oil does.

Tungsten prices jumped more than 50% in March alone, surpassing $3,000 per ton to hit an all-time high. Compared to late December, that's more than a threefold increase. Over the same period, helium prices roughly doubled from pre-war levels, and sulfuric acid prices in Africa climbed more than 30%.

The three materials share a common thread. All are either subject to Chinese export restrictions or heavily dependent on Chinese supply, and simultaneously hit by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade cutting off Middle Eastern sources. China began restricting tungsten exports over a year ago and in December demanded tighter controls on sulfuric acid exports. For helium, an Iranian missile strike damaged key industrial facilities in Qatar that account for roughly a third of global production. With Chinese export controls and the Iran war operating as twin pressures, materials that were in partial oversupply have flipped to shortage all at once.

According to the IEA, 19 of 20 critical minerals are dominated by a single country controlling an average of more than 70% of refining. In 2025, export and import restrictions on critical minerals surged globally to 227 measures, a sharp increase from the previous year. The US announcing a $12 billion critical mineral stockpile plan fits the same pattern.

All three materials are niche raw inputs essential to semiconductor manufacturing. Oil prices are already on everyone's radar, but the price spikes in these materials — which have simultaneously pivoted from oversupply to shortage — haven't yet shown up in downstream companies' earnings. The semiconductor materials and specialty chemicals sectors are likely at the front of this delayed price transmission — because a 50% monthly surge in tungsten hasn't been fully priced into those stocks yet.

Key Developments

Technology

South Korea's Semiconductor Output Surges 28.2% in February — Fastest Growth Since 1988

Semiconductor production jumped 28.2% month-over-month in February, the sharpest increase since January 1988 (36.8%). The semiconductor production index also hit a record high of 215.4, surpassing the previous peak of 211.6 set in September 2025. (Source: Yonhap News)

Samsung Emerges as 2nm GAA Alternative Amid TSMC's 3nm Supply Crunch

TSMC's 3nm supply has become so constrained that only long-term customers like Apple receive priority allocation. Samsung is positioning its second-generation 2nm GAA (SF2P) process as an alternative, targeting a 130% increase in 2nm GAA orders this year. Its first-generation 2nm GAA yields have reached 60%. (Source: WCCFTech)

India Offers 20-Year Tax Exemption for Data Centers — Microsoft, Amazon Pledge $50B, Google $15B

India announced a 20-year tax exemption for hyperscaler data centers. Microsoft and Amazon pledged more than $50 billion toward India's cloud and AI infrastructure within 24 hours. Google announced a $15 billion investment to build its largest data center hub outside the US in India. (Source: CNBC)

Economy

Foreign Net Selling of Korean Stocks Hits Record KRW 35.7T in March

Foreign investors net sold KRW 35.7 trillion ($23.3 billion) worth of South Korean equities in March, a monthly record, extending their selling streak to nine consecutive sessions. (Source: Yonhap News)

S&P 500 Energy Sector Up 39% in Q1 — Widest Outperformance Over Broad Market Ever

The S&P 500 Energy Index gained 39% in Q1 2026, while the S&P 500 Index fell 7%. Energy stocks rose for 14 consecutive weeks, far exceeding the previous record of nine weeks set in 2007. Brent crude has surged 85% year-to-date. (Source: Financial Post)

Global Jet Fuel Costs Surge 103% Month-Over-Month — Fertilizer Supply Chain Also at Risk

Airline jet fuel costs rose 103% compared to a month earlier, according to IATA data for the week ending March 27. Over a third of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and rising fertilizer prices during the spring planting season could push food prices higher. (Source: CNBC)

OECD Cuts South Korea's 2026 Growth Forecast by 0.4pp to 1.7%

The OECD lowered South Korea's 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7%. (Source: South China Morning Post)

South Korea Approves KRW 26.2T Supplementary Budget — KRW 10.1T for Energy Relief, KRW 4.8T in Consumer Vouchers

South Korea's cabinet approved a KRW 26.2 trillion ($17.1 billion) supplementary budget. KRW 10.1 trillion is earmarked for easing high oil prices, including KRW 5 trillion for a petroleum price cap. The bottom 70% of earners will receive consumer vouchers of KRW 100,000 to 600,000 per person, totaling KRW 4.8 trillion. (Source: Yonhap News, CNBC)

Abu Dhabi Firm Acquires US Natural Gas Pipeline Company for $2.25 Billion

Abu Dhabi-based 2PointZero acquired 100% of US natural gas pipeline company Traverse Midstream Partners for $2.25 billion. Traverse holds stakes in the Rover Pipeline, which transports gas from the Utica and Marcellus shale basins to the Upper Midwest, US Gulf Coast, and Eastern Canada. (Source: OilPrice)

EU Industrial Accelerator Act Grants FTA Partner Products Equal Treatment

The final version of the EU's Industrial Accelerator Act grants products from FTA partner countries equal treatment with EU-made goods. South Korea emphasized that the EU's reduction of duty-free quotas for foreign steel must comply with WTO rules. (Source: Yonhap News)

Politics

Rubio Signals NATO Reassessment After Iran War — Trump Tells France, UK 'the USA Won't Help Anymore'

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US may need to reassess its relationship with NATO after the Iran war, calling allies' denial of access to military bases "very disappointing." President Trump criticized France for blocking Israeli-bound munitions flights over its airspace and warned the UK that "the U.S.A. won't be there to help you anymore." (Source: South China Morning Post, CNBC)

Iran Enforces Selective Passage Through Strait of Hormuz — Open to Allies, Restricted for US-Israel Bloc

Iran is operating a selective passage system in the Strait of Hormuz. Routes are open to Iran's allies while access is restricted for the US, Israel, and their partners. Vessels must follow Iran-approved shipping lanes, submit cargo and crew information, and pay transit fees under a new system being implemented. (Source: Economic Times India)

Hegseth's Broker Attempted Defense ETF Investment Before Iran War — Conflict of Interest Controversy

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's broker at Morgan Stanley sought to invest millions in BlackRock's iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF (approximately $3.1 billion in assets) in February, before the Iran war began, according to the Financial Times. The investment did not proceed because the fund was not yet available to Morgan Stanley clients. (Source: CNBC)

Defense Startups Attract Surge of Capital — Saronic $1.75B, Shield AI $2B, European Defense Tech $1.8B

Autonomous ship startup Saronic raised $1.75 billion, reaching a $9.25 billion valuation. Autonomous drone company Shield AI raised $2 billion last week at a $12.7 billion valuation. European defense tech startups raised $1.8 billion in 2025 — nearly three times the previous record — and have already raised $854 million through March 2026. (Source: CNBC, CNBC)

Zelensky Offers Conditional Halt to Energy Infrastructure Attacks — Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Terminal

President Zelensky said Ukraine would stop attacking Russia's energy infrastructure if Russia halted its strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities first. Meanwhile, Ukraine struck a key oil export terminal at the port of Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg. (Source: BBC)

Social

South Korea's Industrial Fatalities Rise to 605 in 2025 — First Increase in Three Years

Industrial fatalities in South Korea rose to 605 in 2025, up 16 (2.7%) from 589 the previous year, marking the first increase since record-keeping began in 2022. Construction accounted for the most deaths at 286, with falls causing 249 fatalities (41.2% of the total). (Source: Yonhap News)