Brent Crude Surges 59% in Record Monthly Gain as US Rate Hike Odds Top 50% for First Time in Three Years

Investment Implications

The Rate Hike Trade Is Back From the Dead

Iran's energy shock is reviving inflation, and US futures markets are pricing in a year-end Fed rate hike at above 50% probability for the first time since 2023. The asset allocation framework built on rate cuts is cracking at its foundation.

On Friday, US futures markets pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end past 50%. That hasn't happened since 2023. The OECD raised its G20 inflation forecast from 2.8% to 4%, pinning Iran's war as the sole driver. US headline inflation projections jumped from 2.6% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026.

Markets are already repricing. The US 20-year Treasury yield hit 4.97%, and the S&P 500 dropped 6.8% for the month — its worst performance since December 2022.

South Korea is no exception. The benchmark KOSPI index fell 2.97%, extending its losing streak to three sessions. The won slid to 1,521.1 per dollar in offshore trading, its weakest level in 17 years since the 2009 global financial crisis.

The WEF pegs global total debt at $251 trillion, or 235% of GDP. Some 45% of OECD sovereign debt matures between 2025 and 2027. When Brent surged to $119 after the Hormuz blockade, UK gilt yields spiked and rate-cut expectations faded — same dynamic at work. If the direction of rates reverses, refinancing costs on that debt pile escalate fast.

The energy shock has jumped from supply chains into financial markets. This year's base case — that rates were heading down — is unraveling. Korea's bond duration risk is the most immediate pressure point. With the won already at a 17-year low, an emerging rate-hike scenario could trigger foreign investors to rebalance their bond positions, accelerating the currency's decline further.

Key Developments

Technology

Eli Lilly Signs $2.75B Global Licensing Deal With AI Drug Developer Insilico

US pharma giant Eli Lilly struck a $2.75 billion deal with Hong Kong-based Insilico Medicine. The agreement includes $115 million upfront, with the remainder tied to regulatory and commercial milestones. Insilico has developed at least 28 drug candidates using generative AI, with nearly half already in clinical trials. (Source: CNBC)

Non-Physical Card Payments in South Korea Hit Record 54.3% Share — KRW 1.7T Daily

Mobile and other non-physical card payments in Korea averaged KRW 1.7T per day in 2025, up 7.3% year-over-year. Non-physical transactions reached a record 54.3% share of total card payments. (Source: Yonhap News)

Starcloud Raises $170M Series A for Space Data Centers — Valued at $1.1B

Space computing startup Starcloud reached unicorn status just 17 months after graduating from Y Combinator. Separately, SpaceX has applied to the US government for permission to build and operate one million satellites for space-distributed computing. (Source: TechCrunch)

China's State Grid Plans CNY 4T ($579B) Grid Upgrade Investment for 2026-2030

A massive grid modernization push aimed at supporting the intelligent economy, responding to surging power demand from AI and data centers. (Source: Benzinga)

Economy

Brent Crude Posts Record 59% Monthly Gain in March

Brent crude traded in the $115-117 per barrel range, surging over 62% from February 27 levels. The gain exceeds the spike during Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait. (Source: OilPrice, Al Jazeera)

Goldman Sachs Raises 2028 US Natural Gas Price Forecast by Over 30% From Pre-War Levels

Structural shifts in global energy supply driven by the Iran war are lifting medium-to-long-term gas price expectations. (Source: Economic Times India)

Korea's Ruling and Opposition Parties Agree to Pass KRW 25T Supplementary Budget by April 10

The two sides agreed on an April 10 deadline for passing the supplementary budget ($16.5 billion) in response to the Middle East crisis. (Source: Yonhap News)

LG Chem Secures 27,000 Tons of Russian Naphtha Amid Middle East Supply Crunch

South Korea's LG Chem secured Russian naphtha to address petrochemical feedstock shortages caused by the Middle East war. The shipment is headed for the Daesan petrochemical complex. (Source: Yonhap News)

Philippines Declares World's First National Energy Emergency — 98% Oil Dependence on Middle East

Gasoline and diesel prices have doubled since the war began. China stepped in with emergency supplies of 260,000 barrels of diesel to the Philippines despite its own export ban. (Source: OilPrice)

Politics

US Federal Government Shutdown Reaches Day 44, Setting All-Time Record

The shutdown has surpassed the previous longest on record, which ended in November 2025. Roughly 500 TSA employees have resigned and thousands more are calling in unpaid, creating hours-long security lines at airports nationwide. (Source: BBC World)

White House Reviewing Model to Strip NATO Voting Rights From Members Below 5% GDP Defense Spending

The "pay-to-play" model could exclude non-compliant members from decisions on expansion, joint operations, and Article 5 invocations. Germany's second-largest opposition party, the AfD, has also demanded the full withdrawal of roughly 40,000 US troops and American nuclear weapons from German soil. (Source: Seeking Alpha)

Pakistan Preparing to Host 'Meaningful Talks' Between US and Iran Within Days

Pakistan is setting up mediation between the US and Iran in Islamabad. Trump called Iran's current leaders "very reasonable," while warning he would "completely obliterate" Iran's electric generating plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened immediately. (Source: Economic Times India, CNBC)

Environment

Iran War Energy Shock Drives Major Economies Back to Coal — US Plans First New Coal Plant in a Decade

Terra Energy Center is investing $1 billion to build the first new coal plant in the US in over a decade. Europe is expected to increase coal power generation by roughly 20% year-over-year this summer. Japan has authorized expanded use of low-efficiency coal plants, and India has ordered its coal power stations to run at full capacity. (Source: Economic Times India)

First Two Weeks of Iran War Generated 5.5 Million Tons of CO2 — Exceeding San Francisco's and Iceland's Annual Emissions

According to the Climate and Community Institute, carbon emissions from the first two weeks of the conflict exceeded both San Francisco's 2022 annual emissions and Iceland's 2024 annual emissions. (Source: Scientific American)

Society

Trash Bag Hoarding Sweeps South Korea — Emart Sales Up 287%, GS25 Up 325%

Fears of rising prices for petroleum-derived products amid the prolonged Middle East crisis have triggered panic buying of trash bags across Korea. Between March 22-29, trash bag sales surged 287% year-over-year at Emart, a major retailer, 140% at Lotte Mart, and 325% at GS25, a leading convenience store chain. (Source: Yonhap News)