Trump's Iran Tariffs, $350B Korea-US Investment MOU, India-EU FTA Deal

Investment Implications

America's Western Hemisphere-first strategy accelerates emerging market trade realignment

After the November 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) designated the Western Hemisphere as the top security priority, the United States has been tightening strategic pressure on Venezuela while running parallel sanctions on Cuba. At the same time, trade cooperation with Mexico is deepening, and Canada dispatched over 370 delegates to expand trade relations with Mexico. Against this backdrop, US exports to emerging markets (excluding China) surged 17% from 190 million tons in 2024 to 223 million tons in 2025, with emerging markets accounting for 49.1% of total US maritime cargo exports. This geographic realignment is showing up in commodity flows. Argentina's shale oil production hit a record 860,000 barrels per day (bpd), up 14% year-over-year, accelerating the restructuring of South America's energy supply chain.

---

Key Developments

Politics

Trump signs executive order imposing 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran

Directly targets China, which buys over 80% of Iran's crude oil, combining nuclear negotiations with sanctions pressure. (Source: Al Jazeera)

Iran's deputy foreign minister says Tehran prepared to consider nuclear deal compromise if US willing to discuss sanctions relief

Second round of nuclear talks scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva. (Source: South China Morning Post)

At least 600 killed since Gaza ceasefire, Trump establishes 'peace committee'

First meeting scheduled for February 19 in Washington to oversee UN Security Council-mandated international forces, Hamas disarmament, and new technocratic Palestinian government in Gaza. (Source: BBC)

Trump administration grants over 1,840 pardons since second term began

Includes pardons for Binance founder CZ (money laundering charges) and former Honduras president (drug trafficking charges). Justice Department pardon attorney who resisted was fired. (Source: Al Jazeera)

EU foreign policy chief says bloc not ready to give Ukraine membership date

At Munich Security Conference, stated most EU member states view 2027 accession included in US-Ukraine-EU peace plan as unrealistic. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Economy

South Korea-US strategic investment MOU implementation committee launches to advance $350B investment

Working expert team to be formed. South Korea's National Assembly also established special committee for investment legislation. Trump threatened 25% reciprocal tariffs if implementation delays. (Source: Yonhap News)

US overseas exports (excluding China) to emerging markets reach 49.1%, crude oil exports surge 58%

Maritime cargo exports to 20 major emerging markets rose 17% to 223 million tons in 2025. Crude oil exports jumped 36 million tons (58%) and wheat exports rose 21.57 million tons (16%). (Source: Eurasia Review)

Canada dispatches 'most important' trade delegation to Mexico, over 370 delegates participate

Canada-Mexico trade reached $56 billion in 2024, up 12-fold since 1995 NAFTA. CUSMA renegotiation scheduled for this summer. (Source: CBC)

China's Lunar New Year movie pre-sales drop over 60% year-over-year to 200 million yuan

2025 Lunar New Year season box office hit record 9.51 billion yuan, but 2026 pre-sales plunged from approximately 600 million yuan same period last year. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Argentina achieves record crude oil production of 860,000 bpd, shale oil 69%

December 2025 production up 14% year-over-year, overtaking Colombia to become South America's fourth-largest oil producer. YPF plans $36 billion investment in Vaca Muerta shale development from 2025-2030. (Source: OilPrice)

Technology

Microsoft AI CEO says machines only months away from reaching AGI

Industry AGI outlook sparks debate on automation acceleration. (Source: Al Jazeera)

Key AI safety researchers leave companies in February 2026

Anthropic researcher Mrinank Sharma, OpenAI researcher Zoe Hitzig, two xAI co-founders and five employees departed, amplifying industry concerns. (Source: Al Jazeera)

ByteDance Seedance 2.0 accused of 'intellectual property smash-and-grab' by Disney

Disney sent cease-and-desist letter, SAG-AFTRA condemned as "blatant infringement." MPA CEO demanded immediate shutdown. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Chinese authorities summon seven major tech companies, demand end to 'involutionary competition'

Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Tencent, JD.com, Meituan, and Taobao Instant Delivery instructed to maintain fair competition environment including AI apps. (Source: South China Morning Post)

US computer science enrollment down 6%, students shift to AI-specialized programs

UC system saw 3% decline in 2024 followed by additional 6% decline in 2025. 62% of US computing programs reported undergraduate enrollment declines. (Source: TechCrunch)

Social

Greater Jakarta metropolitan area becomes world's most populous city (42 million)

UN's new criteria place it ahead of Tokyo as of second half 2025. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Environment

Malaysia enforces immediate ban on electronic waste imports

Seized approximately 200 tons of e-waste from three US ports at Port Klang, pending return shipment. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Ghana's president declares end to raw material exports by 2030

Plans to mandate local processing of over 50% of minerals including manganese, bauxite, iron ore, and cocoa beans. (Source: NewsGhana)