AI's $100B Arms Race, Russian Oil Realignment, US-Korea Alliance Shift

Following a $41B round in March, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon (up to $50B), and SoftBank (additional $30B) are in talks to participate. Sam Altman emphasized ChatGPT growth re-acceleration to employees. (Source: CNBC)

Following a $13B equity investment five months ago, investor demand has pushed the round to $20B—double the original target. (Source: TechCrunch)

Two models (9B/35B parameters) with native multimodal support and next-gen architecture (Qwen3-Next). Code released on Hugging Face/GitHub. (Source: SCMP)

Mass production of robotaxis co-developed with Toyota has started, targeting a fleet of over 3,000 domestically and internationally by end-2026. (Source: SCMP)

In response to surging AI demand, TSMC plans to produce more advanced chips in Japan. Japan becomes the third core production site after Taiwan and the US. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

South Korea's economy grew just 1% in 2025, with Q4 contracting -0.3% quarter-over-quarter—the first contraction in six months. Youth employment has declined for 21 consecutive months, and Korea officially entered super-aged society in 2025 (population 65+ exceeds 20%). (Source: Yonhap News, Yonhap News)

Under the US-Korea trade agreement, mutual tariffs on Korean products fell from 25% to 15%. Korea committed to $350 billion in US investments, while the US NDS simultaneously announced Korea's shift to "primary responsibility" for North Korean defense. (Source: Yonhap News, Yonhap News)

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta recorded roughly $120 billion in capital expenditures in Q4 alone. During the same week, Big Tech stocks lost over $1 trillion in market cap, marking the worst week since April for the Magnificent 7. (Source: CNBC)

Sales have collapsed to less than half the 2021 peak (RMB 18.2T) in four years. Home prices are expected to fall another 2-4%, with Beijing/Guangzhou/Shenzhen down at least 3%, while only Shanghai rose 5.7%. (Source: CNBC)

Gold futures once again broke through the $5,000 level. Safe-haven demand continues amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns. (Source: MarketWatch)

As the US-India trade deal conditions include halting Russian oil imports, Indian refiners are avoiding April Russian crude purchases. IOC purchased 6 million barrels from Middle East/West Africa. Russia's share of India's oil imports fell to 25% in December. (Source: OilPrice, OilPrice)

BP completely halted share buybacks (down from $1.75B→$750M/quarter previously). Equinor cut buybacks to $1.5B from $5B this year and reduced renewable energy investments. Shell maintained $3.5B for its 17th consecutive quarter above $3B. (Source: CNBC)

The US supplied over 57% of EU LNG imports, lowering Europe's energy costs, while US domestic gas prices are expected to rise nearly 50% by 2030-2035. The LNG boom is projected to contribute up to $1.3 trillion to GDP by 2040. (Source: OilPrice)

Transocean is acquiring Valaris for around $5.8B, creating a mega offshore driller with 73 rigs and $10B in backlog. Asia-Pacific accounts for roughly 45% of the global offshore oil market. (Source: OilPrice)

Tokyo's average new apartment prices rose 17% year-over-year to a record high, with supply at its lowest in over 50 years. Seoul apartment prices have risen for 53 consecutive weeks, and Australian home values have risen 46% over five years. (Source: SCMP)

December job openings (JOLTS) hit their lowest since September 2020, and January ADP private payrolls increased just 22,000. January layoffs and hiring both hit their worst levels since 2009. (Source: CNBC)

The LDP secured more than two-thirds of seats in the House of Representatives. Takaichi is interpreting this as a mandate for "major policy shifts" and plans to pursue amendments to Article 9, which renounces war. (Source: Nikkei Asia, SCMP)

Trump announced a deal reducing tariffs on Indian imports from 18-50%. The executive order explicitly includes halting Russian oil imports, though PM Modi only confirmed the deal without addressing the oil clause. Final confirmation expected in March. (Source: SCMP, The Diplomat)

The European Commission plans to impose interim measures on Meta to stop excluding third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp. In 2025, US Big Tech's EU fines totaled €500M for Apple, €200M for Meta, and €2.95B for Google. (Source: CNBC)

NATO member states agreed to raise defense spending targets to 3.5% of GDP. The UK currently struggles to deploy 25,000 troops to Eastern Europe, while 80% of Europeans support common defense policy. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

The People's Bank of China and eight other agencies jointly banned domestic RWA explicitly, along with offshore stablecoins pegged to the yuan and overseas crypto issuance. The primary goals are preventing capital flight and fraud. (Source: SCMP)

China's old-age dependency ratio is projected to match the US by 2035 and the EU by 2046, with retirees potentially outnumbering workers by 2080. Household consumption remains at just 40% of GDP, about 20 percentage points below the global average. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

Around 55,000 US companies publicly cited AI-driven layoffs in 2025, yet zero employers listed AI as a reason in New York State WARN filings. Goldman Sachs (4,100) and Amazon (660) led large-scale New York layoffs. (Source: Wired)

The government will gradually expand medical school enrollment from 3,548 in 2027 to 3,871 by 2031, averaging 668 new seats per year. This includes new public and regional medical schools, as Korea has entered super-aged society and faces urgent healthcare workforce needs. (Source: Yonhap News)