Big Tech Sheds $1T, Gold Reclaims $5,000, China Property Set for Further Decline

Big Tech's $120B capex meets $1T market cap wipeout, gold reclaims $5,000, S&P forecasts 10-14% further decline in China property, NATO agrees to 3.5% defense spending target

EconomyPoliticsTechnologySociety

Investment Implications

AI Infrastructure Investment Efficiency Under Scrutiny

Big Tech's four giants (Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta) spent roughly $120 billion on capex in Q4, yet their combined market cap evaporated by over $1 trillion in the same week. OpenAI's $100B and Anthropic's $20B mega-rounds signal robust AI company valuations, but the market has started questioning whether Big Tech's infrastructure spending is converting to profits fast enough. That said, tariff uncertainty and the interest rate environment also contributed to the selloff, so this doesn't necessarily represent a negative signal on AI investment itself.


Key Developments

Economy

Big Tech stocks shed over $1 trillion in market cap in one week

Big Tech companies including Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta lost more than $1 trillion in market capitalization last week. These firms recorded roughly $120 billion in capital expenditures in Q4 2025 alone. (Source: CNBC)

Gold futures reclaim $5,000 mark

Gold futures reclaimed the $5,000 level. Bitcoin's attempted rebound coincided with gold's recapture of $5,000, reflecting crosscurrents in capital flows between risk assets and safe-haven assets. (Source: MarketWatch, MarketWatch)

China property sales forecast to decline 10-14% in 2026

S&P Global forecasts China's primary property sales will fall 10-14% in 2026, worse than its October projection of a 5-8% decline. Home prices are expected to drop an additional 2-4%. China's property market once accounted for more than 25% of GDP, yet annual sales volumes have halved in four years. (Source: CNBC)

U.S. supplies 57% of EU LNG imports

As of early 2026, the United States supplies 57% of EU LNG imports, up from 45% in 2024. U.S. LNG exports hit a record 111 million tons in 2025, surpassing 100 million tons for the first time. The EIA projects U.S. LNG export capacity will more than double by 2029. (Source: OilPrice)

China's paradox: GDP growth meets revenue contraction

China's real GDP grew 5.3% in the first half of 2025, yet tax revenues declined 1.2%. According to World Bank data, Chinese household consumption accounts for just 40% of GDP, about 20 percentage points below global averages. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

OpenAI nearing completion of $100B funding round

OpenAI is finalizing a funding round potentially worth up to $100 billion. In March, it closed a $41 billion round including $30 billion from SoftBank, and is now in talks with Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon (up to $50 billion), and SoftBank (an additional $30 billion). (Source: CNBC)

Anthropic raises $20B at $35B valuation

Anthropic is in the final stages of raising $20 billion in new capital at a $35 billion valuation. Investor demand doubled the round from its original target, following a $13 billion equity investment completed five months earlier. (Source: TechCrunch)

Bank of Japan begins phased drawdown of ¥95T ETF holdings

The Bank of Japan is gradually unwinding its ¥95 trillion (approximately $610 billion) ETF holdings as part of monetary policy normalization. Japan has pledged $550 billion in investments to the United States. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Politics

NATO agrees to 3.5% GDP defense spending target by 2035

NATO members agreed to increase defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035. A 2025 Eurobarometer survey found roughly 80% of Europeans concerned about EU security over the next five years and supportive of common defense policies. A pan-European poll in early 2025 found only 19% of respondents confident their national forces could defend the country, while 60% expressed confidence in a hypothetical European common army. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

Japan's PM Takaichi wins landslide, pledges food tax cut

Prime Minister Takaichi won a landslide victory in Japan's election and announced a plan to cut the food consumption tax (currently 8%) to 0% for two years. President Trump congratulated Takaichi on the win but also expressed frustration over delays in Japan's investment commitments. China conducted a three-month campaign of criticism and pressure targeting Takaichi. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

U.S.-India trade deal advances, contingent on ending Russian oil imports

Trump announced an agreement to reduce tariffs on Indian imports from 18-50%. The executive order states that "India has committed to ending direct and indirect imports of Russian crude oil." (Source: SCMP)

Hong Kong's Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years under national security law

Hong Kong media mogul and democracy advocate Jimmy Lai was sentenced to 20 years in prison under the national security law. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

44 Thai reformist party members face lifetime political ban

Thailand's National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) ruled 44 former MPs from the dissolved Move Forward party in violation of ethical standards. The issue stems from a petition to amend the lèse-majesté law. (Source: SCMP)

Technology

EU plans interim measures forcing Meta to reverse WhatsApp AI policy

The European Commission plans to impose interim measures requiring Meta to halt its exclusion of third-party AI assistants from WhatsApp. Meta updated its WhatsApp Business Solution Terms in October 2025 to effectively ban third-party general-purpose AI assistants, with the policy taking effect in January 2026. The EU launched an investigation in December 2025 into whether the policy violates antitrust regulations. (Source: CNBC)

Chinese chipmaker Montage Technology surges 60% on Hong Kong IPO debut

Montage Technology's IPO raised $902 million, with Hong Kong public offering subscriptions oversubscribed 700 times. Chinese semiconductor firms are increasingly going public, with GigaDevice and OmniVision listing in January, and Biren, MetaX, Moore Threads, and Iluvatar CoreX listing recently. (Source: CNBC)

Pony AI and Toyota begin mass production of robotaxis

Pony AI has begun mass production of robotaxis co-developed with Toyota, with plans to produce 1,000 units this year. The company aims to operate a fleet of more than 3,000 robotaxis in domestic and international markets by the end of 2026. (Source: SCMP)

BNY deploys 134 AI digital employees with $3.8B tech investment

BNY, America's oldest bank, spent approximately $3.8 billion on technology in 2025 (roughly 19% of revenue, the highest ratio in the industry). The bank deployed 134 digital employees (AI automating repetitive tasks), signaling early-stage AI automation adoption across financial institutions. (Source: CNBC)

Social

UK expands BN(O) scheme, expects 26,000 arrivals over 5 years

The UK Home Office announced that the expanded BN(O) scheme is expected to admit 26,000 Hong Kong residents over the next five years. The announcement came after Jimmy Lai's sentencing. (Source: SCMP)

China's social security fund may be depleted by 2035

China's national social security fund faces potential depletion by 2035. China's old-age dependency ratio (retirees relative to working-age population) is projected to equal that of the United States by 2035 and the EU by 2046, with retirees expected to outnumber workers by 2080. (Source: Foreign Affairs)

Environment

Germany pursues 80% renewable energy target by 2030

Germany is pursuing an 80% renewable energy generation target by 2030, with solar power at intermediate achievement levels. (Source: OilPrice)

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