NAND Prices Jump 4-10x as TSMC, ASE Record Capex Pushes the AI Supercycle Into Memory

Investment Implications

NAND Is Up 4-10x. The AI Capex Cycle Has Found Memory.

The battlefield for this year's AI capex race is shifting from foundries and back-end packaging into memory. Silicon Motion's CEO called the 4-10x jump in NAND prices "unprecedented" — and he said it on the same day SK Hynix printed a fresh all-time high. That's today's signal.

Today, Silicon Motion CEO Wallace Kou said NAND flash prices across various capacities have climbed 4-10x year-over-year, calling the move "unprecedented." On the same day, TSMC reported Q1 2026 revenue of $35.9 billion, up 40.6% year-over-year, and guided 2026 capital expenditure to the high end of its record $52-56 billion range. In back-end, ASE broke ground on a $3.4 billion advanced chip test facility in Kaohsiung, with CEO Tien Wu adding that full-year capex will top the originally planned $7 billion and that the company is simultaneously building six plants — a scale he called unprecedented in the company's history. Two Taiwanese chip executives, same day, both reaching for the word "unprecedented."

The numbers point in one direction. The compute required for AI inference and training is draining leading-edge foundry capacity (TSMC) and back-end packaging and test capacity (ASE) at the same time, and the pressure is now bleeding into memory. NAND up 4-10x is what happens when demand-side pressure exposes supply-side bottlenecks through price. Today, SK Hynix closed at KRW 1,150,000 for a fresh all-time high, and Samsung Electronics posted Q1 2026 operating profit of KRW 57 trillion. The market is starting to price in who the direct beneficiaries of this structure actually are.

Meanwhile, the fact that Japan and the Netherlands shipped more than $77 billion in semiconductor equipment to China from 2020 through 2025 tells us that yesterday's implication — regulation didn't shrink trade, it rerouted it — still holds upstream in the supply chain. What's different today is that the center of gravity has moved one step downstream, from equipment and routes to memory supply and demand.

So the part worth watching most closely right now is NAND memory. The HBM-led DRAM rally has already been substantially priced in, but the 4-10x move in NAND is a signal that only just got formalized through an executive's mouth. In a window where supply constraints and AI storage demand show up simultaneously, Korea's two memory makers' NAND exposure and the NAND controller and module supply chain are likely to be the first places where next quarter's earnings put a number on it.

Key Developments

Technology

TSMC Guides 2026 Capex to Record $52-56B — High End Now in Sight

TSMC reported Q1 2026 revenue of $35.9 billion and said full-year capex will hit the high end of its previously guided $52-56 billion range. Management added that capex over the next three years will remain meaningfully above the prior three-year level, citing the AI revolution accelerating competition for advanced chips. (Source: South China Morning Post)

ASE Breaks Ground on $3.4B Advanced Chip Test Facility in Kaohsiung

ASE, the world's top back-end chip firm, held a groundbreaking ceremony for a $3.4 billion advanced chip test facility in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, targeting operations in 2027. The move is backed by surging AI chip demand and the resulting need for packaging and test capacity. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

ASE CEO: 2026 Capex to Exceed $7B, Six Plants Being Built Simultaneously

ASE CEO Tien Wu said 2026 capital expenditure will surpass the original $7 billion plan and that the company is currently building six plants at once — a scale he described as unprecedented in the company's history. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Japan and Netherlands Chip Tool Exports to China Top $77B Cumulatively, 2020-2025

According to a Nikkei analysis, combined Japanese and Dutch semiconductor equipment shipments to China topped $77 billion between 2020 and 2025. China continued to import tools from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands, while its domestic equipment makers also posted record results in 2025. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

TEPCO Restarts Commercial Operations at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, the World's Largest Nuclear Plant

TEPCO resumed commercial operations at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant in Niigata Prefecture. When all seven reactors run, total output reaches 8.212 GW — the facility ranked as the world's largest when it topped capacity rankings in 1997. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

China Releases First Seabed Geochemical Map of Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

China's Ministry of Natural Resources on April 14 released its first geochemical map of seabed sediments across the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea, covering dozens of elements including rare earths, iron, manganese, and copper. The map draws on data from more than 20,000 sampling points and lands as Japan accelerates its own deep-sea rare earth mining push. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Economy

Silicon Motion CEO: NAND Prices Up 4-10x in a Year, "Unprecedented"

Silicon Motion CEO Wallace Kou, returning from meetings with customers in the US, Japan, and China, said NAND flash prices across various capacities have risen 4-10x year-over-year. He called the move "unprecedented." (Source: Nikkei Asia)

TSMC Q1 2026 Revenue Hits $35.9B, Up 40.6% Year-Over-Year

TSMC's Q1 revenue came in at $35.9 billion, up 40.6% year-over-year and slightly above its own guidance. AI chip demand is driving utilization at leading-edge nodes. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Samsung Electronics Posts Q1 2026 Operating Profit of KRW 57T ($38.7B)

Samsung Electronics reported Q1 2026 operating profit of KRW 57 trillion, roughly $38.7 billion. AI memory demand sits at the core of the earnings momentum. (Source: Yonhap News)

SK Hynix Closes at KRW 1,150,000, All-Time High

SK Hynix rose 1.67% to close at KRW 1,150,000, a fresh all-time high. On the same day, South Korea's benchmark KOSPI also advanced for a third consecutive session. (Source: Yonhap News)

Nikkei 225 Closes at Record 59,518.34, Breaking February's High

The Nikkei 225 rose 1,384 points (+2.4%) to close at 59,518.34, setting a new closing record and topping the previous February 27 close of 58,850.27 for the first time. AI-benefiting chip and tech names led the move. (Source: Nikkei Asia)

Global Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries Hit Record $9.49T in February

Foreign holdings of US Treasuries reached $9.49 trillion in February 2026, up from $9.29 trillion a month earlier — a new all-time high. China trimmed its holdings over the same period, but total foreign ownership rose nonetheless. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Kering Unveils "ReconKering" Plan to More Than Double 2025's 11.1% Operating Margin

Kering CEO Luca de Meo laid out a "ReconKering" strategy aimed at more than doubling the company's 2025 recurring operating margin of 11.1% over the medium term and lifting ROCE above 20%. The plan also includes renovating or relocating two-thirds of Gucci stores by 2030 and cutting selling space by 20%. (Source: CNBC)

Novo Nordisk to Hire 2,000 in 2026 After 7,800 Job Cuts Last Year

According to Bloomberg, Denmark's Novo Nordisk is hiring around 2,000 new employees in 2026 as it restructures after roughly 7,800 job cuts in 2025. The company said it is hiring selectively in high-growth areas such as obesity and diabetes treatments. (Source: LiveMint)

Politics

IMF: Half the World Is Raising Defense Budgets, Top Arms Firms' Sales Have Doubled in 20 Years

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said about half of the world's countries are currently raising defense budgets, and global arms sales at top defense firms have doubled in real terms over the past 20 years. The "guns vs. butter" trade-off is widening again. (Source: CNBC)

EU-27 Defense Spending Hits EUR 381B in 2025 — Up 11% YoY, +63% vs. 2020

Defense spending across the EU-27 is estimated at EUR 381 billion ($448.8 billion) in 2025, up 11% year-over-year and roughly 63% above 2020. Poland's finance minister reaffirmed the country's defense spending target of 5% of GDP. (Source: CNBC)

US Senate Rejects Resolution Limiting Trump's Iran War Powers for the Fourth Time (47-52)

According to CNN, the US Senate rejected a resolution limiting war powers against Iran by a 47-52 vote — the fourth such defeat this year. The measure would have required congressional approval for future military action on Iran. (Source: Economic Times India)

NYC Mayor Mamdani Confirms "Pied-à-Terre" Tax on Second Homes Over $5M

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani confirmed on April 15 a new "pied-à-terre" tax on luxury second homes valued above $5 million held by non-resident owners. The tax covers 13,000 units across the city's five boroughs and targets more than $500 million in annual revenue. (Source: LiveMint)

China's Foreign Ministry Advises Citizens to Avoid Seattle Airport

Following the denial of entry to 20 Chinese academics holding valid visas, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised Chinese citizens to avoid Seattle airport. The official warning used the phrase "malicious interrogation and harassment." (Source: South China Morning Post)

US Reconciliation Bill Mandates 75% Increase in Logging, Locks In 20-Year Timber Contracts Through 2045

The US reconciliation bill mandates a 75% increase in logging from national forests and requires 20-year timber contracts locked in through 2045. The same bill opens 58 million acres of wilderness by repealing the Roadless Rule. (Source: Hatch Magazine)

Society

US Birth Rate Down 23% vs. 2007 — 53.1 per 1,000 Women Aged 15-44

The US birth rate stands at 53.1 per 1,000 women aged 15-44 in 2025, a 23% decline from 2007. Federal cuts to Title X family planning grants are spilling into a broader debate over healthcare access. (Source: KFF Health News)

Aging Explains 33.6% of Rising Disease Burden (DALY) in Five Asian Economies — 40.5% in Korea

A Health Policy study finds that across South Korea, Japan, China, Singapore, and Taiwan, an average of 33.6% of the total rise in DALYs from 2000 to 2019 is explained by population aging. South Korea topped the group at 40.5%. (Source: Stanford APARC)

Kashmir Raises INR 6B ($64M) for Civilians Hit by US-Israeli Strikes on Iran

In Indian-administered Kashmir, donations totaling up to INR 6 billion, or around $64 million, including cash, gold, jewelry, and livestock, have been gathered to support civilians affected by US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The Iranian embassy in India said Kashmir accounted for more than 40% of total donations from India. (Source: Al Jazeera)

Ireland: Fuel Price Protests Enter Day 10 — Diesel +28%, Petrol +25%

In the Republic of Ireland, "go-slow" convoys of farm contractors and freight haulers have blocked roads, fuel depots, and ports for 10 consecutive days. Diesel is up about 28% and petrol about 25% since the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. (Source: Al Jazeera)