US-Iran Ceasefire Sends Oil Down 13%; Fertilizer Supply Faces 3-5 Year Gap

Investment Implications

The Ceasefire Fixed Oil. It Can't Fix Fertilizer.

Oil dropped 13% in a single day, but fertilizer prices have doubled and show no sign of coming down. Gulf fertilizer infrastructure will take 3-5 years to rebuild — and planting season is now.

Brent crude plunged 13% to $94.80 a barrel on news of a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, and global equities rallied in unison. Markets read the Strait of Hormuz reopening as the end of the energy crisis.

But the numbers QatarEnergy released the same day point in the opposite direction. The Ras Laffan LNG complex has lost 17% of its export capacity, and full repairs will take up to five years. This facility produces roughly one-fifth of the world's LNG — and its byproducts are fertilizer feedstock. According to the South China Morning Post, the Gulf accounts for about 45% of global urea exports, and per CNBC, more than a third of all fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The key signal today came from Australia. The country imports 70% of its fertilizer demand, and delivery prices have already doubled. Industry sources say domestic stockpiles will last only until mid-April. With 64% of imports sourced from the Gulf — and those production facilities needing 3-5 years to rebuild — there is no reason for prices to fall alongside crude. In Myanmar, the WFP warned that a 50% drop in fertilizer use this planting season could cut agricultural output by 10-15%. According to the South China Morning Post, China depends on the Persian Gulf for 47% of its sulfur imports, and the agricultural supply chain shock is becoming reality as spring planting begins.

OPEC can ramp up crude supply within weeks. Bombed fertilizer plants cannot. Agricultural futures and fertilizer-linked sectors are likely still in the window where this time lag hasn't been priced in.

Key Developments

Technology

Thailand Pursues Over 70 Data Center Projects — Conflict with Water-Stressed Regions

Most are concentrated in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) special economic zone. One facility's annual water demand is estimated at 3.3 million cubic meters, equivalent to the consumption of about 37,000 residents. About 85% of Thailand's power grid relies on gas and coal. (Source: Mongabay)

24% of Hong Kong Firms Plan Full AI Adoption This Year — Triple the 8% Last Year

Based on KPMG's Hong Kong Employment Outlook 2026 report. The expansion of AI adoption is accompanied by expectations of workforce reductions. (Source: South China Morning Post)

South Korea Delivers First Domestically Built Medium-Altitude UAV — 90% Local Components

The defense procurement agency held an unveiling event in Busan. Development began in December 2023, with operational deployment planned from 2027. (Source: Yonhap News)

Alibaba Unveils Data Center with 10,000 In-House AI Chips — Joint Venture with China Telecom

Located in Shaoguan, Guangdong province, the facility supports AI model training and inference at the scale of hundreds of billions of parameters. It is planned to expand to 100,000 chips. (Source: CNBC)

CATL Targets Mass Production of Solid-State Batteries by 2027 — Holds 42% Global EV Battery Share

CATL held a 42% share of the global EV battery market in the first two months of 2026. The company targets broad adoption by 2030. Current production costs for a 500km-range battery exceed ¥20,000, while solid-state versions cost up to three times more. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Economy

Brent Crude Drops 13% on US-Iran Ceasefire, Global Equities Surge

Brent crude fell to $94.80 per barrel, and WTI dropped more than 15% to $95.75. South Korea's KOSPI rose about 6%, the Nikkei 5%, and the DAX about 5%. The dollar index fell 1.21% while the Korean won gained 1.66%. (Source: BBC World, Yonhap News)

US Jet Fuel Prices Nearly Double Since February 27 — Delta Plans Capacity Cuts

Jet fuel surged from $2.50 to $4.88 per gallon. Delta Air Lines beat expectations with an adjusted EPS of 64 cents despite $2 billion in additional Q1 fuel costs, but plans to meaningfully reduce capacity in the near term. (Source: CNBC, CNBC)

Over 800 Ships Stranded in Strait of Hormuz, Including 7 Korean Tankers with 14 Million Barrels

Traffic has dropped dramatically from the usual 135 ships per day in peacetime. About 20,000 civilian crew members remain trapped on vessels. The crude oil aboard Korean tankers is equivalent to five days of Korea's consumption. (Source: LiveMint, Yonhap News)

Ras Laffan LNG Complex Loses 17% Export Capacity — Up to 5 Years to Rebuild, $20B Annual Revenue Loss

The Qatari complex produces roughly one-fifth of the world's LNG. QatarEnergy said it may need to declare force majeure on some long-term LNG contracts for up to five years. Rystad Energy estimates Middle East energy infrastructure repair costs at more than $25 billion. (Source: BBC World, OilPrice)

HD Korea Shipbuilding Affiliates Secure KRW 1.97T in Ship Orders This Month

The contracts cover the construction of value-added vessels for clients across Greece, Oceania, Asia, and Africa. Demand for shipping and energy transportation continues to expand following the Middle East conflict. (Source: Yonhap News)

China Intensifies Crackdown on Undeclared Overseas Income — ¥7.1B Recovered from 4,223 High-Risk Individuals

A 20% tax is applied to overseas stock capital gains and dividend income, with retroactive voluntary disclosure required back to 2022. Key targets include high-risk sectors such as livestreaming and equity transfers. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Korea's Oil Stockpile Falls to 77.6 Million Barrels (26 Days) After IEA Emergency Release

According to a CSIS report, government-only reserves cover 34 days, or about 67 days including private stocks. A prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade would expose Korea's energy security vulnerabilities. (Source: Yonhap News)

Environment

UN Report: Every Continent Losing Freshwater for 280 Million People Annually — Warns of 'Global Water Bankruptcy'

Based on a January 2026 UN report warning that humanity has irreversibly damaged freshwater systems, entering an era of "global water bankruptcy." (Source: Live Science)

Politics

US-Iran Ceasefire Deal Includes Strait of Hormuz Transit Toll — About $2 Million Per Ship

The toll revenue will be shared between Iran and Oman, with Iran using its share for postwar reconstruction. No transit toll had ever been imposed on the strait before. (Source: LiveMint)

US Military Operations Against Iran Cost $22.3B-$31B Over 5 Weeks, About $500M Daily

Estimated by Elaine McCusker, AEI senior fellow and former Pentagon senior budget official. CSIS adviser Mark Cancian estimates combat and infrastructure losses reached at least $1.4 billion just six days into the war. The Pentagon has requested approximately $200 billion in additional funding from Congress. (Source: Wen Wei Po)

Trump Declares Immediate 50% Tariff on Nations Supplying Arms to Iran

The tariff applies to all goods sold to the US from those countries, with no exceptions or exemptions. (Source: Economic Times India)

France Shipped Over 525 Military Consignments to Israel from October 2023 to March 2026

Based on open-source export data. In 2024, dual-use export licenses exceeded 200 (worth €76.5 million), down 60% year-over-year. (Source: France 24)

North Korea Fires Short-Range Ballistic Missiles in Succession — Fifth Launch This Year

One missile launched from Wonsan in the afternoon flew more than 700km, and multiple missiles fired the same morning traveled 240km. (Source: Yonhap News)

South Korea's Defense Minister Proposes Selective Conscription — Targets 50,000 Tech-Specialized NCOs

Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back proposed an option for conscripts to serve up to five years as technology-specialized non-commissioned officers instead of the standard mandatory service. The reform addresses demographic shifts and changes in the battlefield environment. (Source: Yonhap News)

Social

Gallup: Global Employee Engagement Falls to 20% — Lowest Since 2020, 9% of GDP Lost to Productivity

The two consecutive years of decline is a first. Europe remains the least engaged region for the sixth straight year. Productivity losses from disengaged and actively disengaged employees are estimated at up to 9% of global GDP. (Source: Euronews)

Greece Announces Social Media Ban for Under-15s — Effective January 2027

Greece also proposed a pan-European social media ban framework to the EU Commission president. The move follows Australia's implementation of the world's first under-16 ban in December 2025, a trend now spreading across countries. (Source: BBC World)