Gold's Worst Week Since 1983 Meets Oil Plunge in a Miner Margin Squeeze

Investment Implications

Revenue Down, Costs Up — The Scissors Closing on Gold Miners

Gold spot just posted its worst weekly decline since 1983, while Brent crude pushed past $112 a barrel. Gold miners are getting squeezed from both sides — revenue shrinking, energy costs surging.

Gold was the war trade. It surged 64% through 2025 and tacked on another 18% into early 2026. GDX, the gold miners ETF, rode that wave to roughly 200% gains — leveraged exposure working exactly as advertised.

Now that leverage is working in reverse. Gold spot has fallen 25% from its all-time high to $4,097 an ounce, dropping more than 8% in a single day — the worst weekly decline since February 1983. Meanwhile, Brent crude has climbed to $112.66, up 50% from pre-conflict levels, and Goldman Sachs sees a $110 average for March-April. For gold miners, this is the scissors effect: revenue (gold prices) shrinking while the biggest cost line item (energy) surges. GDX is down 27% year-to-date.

The more telling signal is the shift in the rate path. CME FedWatch now prices a 27% probability of rate hikes by year-end, as oil-driven inflation shakes monetary policy expectations. With rate-cut hopes fading, the appeal of holding a zero-yield asset like gold diminishes.

Energy costs are eating into margins faster than gold prices can recover. The longer the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, the more diesel and electricity costs push up extraction expenses, while rate-hike expectations cap gold's rebound potential. Gold miners are emerging as the hidden casualty of the oil rally, and the most energy-intensive operators are likely to feel the margin erosion first.

Key Developments

Technology

Musk's Joint Venture Terafab to Build $20B+ AI Chip Manufacturing Facility in Texas

Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI joint venture Terafab will invest more than $20 billion to build the world's largest end-to-end AI chip design and manufacturing facility in Austin, Texas. The facility will use 2nm process technology, marking the first attempt to house chip design, lithography, fabrication, memory, packaging, and testing under a single roof. (Source: New Atlas)

Meta Pulls VR Social Platform Horizon Worlds From Quest — Reality Labs Has Burned Through $80B

Meta announced it will remove its VR social platform Horizon Worlds from Quest headsets, keeping it as a mobile app only. Reality Labs has spent more than $80 billion since 2021, while Quest headset sales fell 16% year-over-year. The Horizon mobile app has 45 million cumulative downloads but just $1.1 million in total consumer spending. (Source: France 24)

LG Electronics Declares 2026 the Launch Year for Its Robotics Business — Plans In-House Actuator Production

LG Electronics CEO Lyu Jae-cheol declared 2026 the launch year for the company's robotics business, focusing on four pillars driven by AI adoption: robotics, cooling solutions, smart factories, and AI-enabled homes. The company aims to become a global core supplier by producing actuators in-house — a component that accounts for roughly 40% of robot production costs. (Source: Yonhap News)

Ukraine Deploys Low-Cost Interceptor Drones at Scale Ahead of NATO — 1,500+ Per Day to the Front

Ukraine is producing tens of thousands of disposable interceptor drones annually at $2,000 each, delivering more than 1,500 per day to frontline units. The layered defense system counters $20,000 Shahed-type drones, putting Ukraine ahead of NATO allies in deploying low-cost interceptor drones at scale. (Source: The Register)

Economy

Gold Spot Posts Worst Weekly Decline Since 1983 — Down 25% From All-Time High to $4,097/oz

Gold spot plunged more than 8% to $4,097.99 per ounce, its worst weekly decline since February 1983. The metal has fallen roughly 25% from its January 2026 all-time high, as Middle East conflict and $100-plus oil prices fuel rate-hike expectations that undermine the appeal of zero-yield gold. (Source: Bangkok Post)

Brent Crude Plunges 8% After Trump Signals Iran Talks — Falls to Around $103

Brent crude plunged more than 8% to around $103 after President Trump said the US and Iran had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution" of hostilities. The IRGC denied attacking Gulf state desalination plants but warned that if Washington strikes Iranian energy assets, it would retaliate against the power, energy, and ICT infrastructure of countries hosting US military bases, as well as Israel. (Source: OilPrice)

Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Forecast to $110/bbl Average for March-April

Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude forecast to a $110 per barrel average for March-April, up from its prior $98 estimate. WTI forecasts also moved up to $98 for March and $105 for April. If Strait of Hormuz flows remain at 5% of normal for 10 weeks, Brent could exceed the 2008 record of roughly $147 per barrel. (Source: CNBC)

Saudi Aramco Cuts Asia Oil Supplies for Second Straight Month — March Exports Plunge to 4.35M bpd

Saudi Aramco is supplying only Arab Light grade shipped from its Yanbu port on the Red Sea due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. March exports fell to roughly 4.35 million bpd from 7.1 million bpd in February. Yanbu shipments are expected to hit a monthly record of 3.8 million bpd but cannot fully offset the Hormuz losses. (Source: OilPrice)

Korean Won Hits 17-Year Low at 1,517.30/USD — KOSPI Plunges 6.49%

The Korean won fell to 1,517.30 per dollar, its weakest level in 17 years, closing above 1,500 for two consecutive trading days for the first time since the March 2009 global financial crisis. South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index plunged 375.45 points (-6.49%) to close at 5,405.75, with foreign investors net selling KRW 3.67T ($2.43 billion). (Source: Yonhap News)

POSCO International Builds Global Heavy Rare Earth Supply Chain — 4,500 Tons From Southeast Asia, US Refinery by 2027

POSCO International is pursuing a $30 million joint refining project with a Malaysian partner, targeting roughly 4,500 tons per year from Southeast Asia. The company is also building a 3,000-ton annual rare earth refinery in the US with ReElement Technologies, set for production in 2027, with a 3,000-ton permanent magnet facility planned by 2028. (Source: Yonhap News)

GLP-1 Obesity Drug Prices Plummet — Wegovy at $149/Month, Down 91% From Launch

The starting dose of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy now costs $149 per month in the US, down roughly 91% from over $1,600 at its 2021 launch. Eli Lilly's Zepbound vials are available for $299 per month, about 70% below 2023 launch pricing. With US adult obesity rates at around 40%, drugmakers are expanding through retail channels like Walmart and Costco with direct-to-consumer models targeting uninsured customers. (Source: BBC)

China's Gallium and Germanium Exports to Japan Hit Zero in Jan-Feb 2026 — Semiconductor and Defense Supply Chains at Risk

China's gallium exports to Japan dropped to zero in January-February 2026, down from 8,007 kg in the same period of 2025. Germanium exports also hit zero, versus 400 kg a year earlier. Both are dual-use materials critical for semiconductors, fiber optics, renewable energy, and military technology. The cutoff came amid heightened tensions following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan in November 2025. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Middle East Supplies 85% of Global Polyethylene — Prices Rising for Toys, Electronics, and Construction Materials

The Middle East accounts for roughly 85% of global polyethylene supply, and the war is pushing up prices for toys, electronics, apparel, construction materials, and household goods. Buyers in Europe and the US are shifting from long-term to short-term orders, squeezing exporters' cash flow. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Environment

Drilling Team Recovers 200-Meter Sediment Core Beneath Antarctica's Ross Ice Shelf — 23 Million Years of Climate Data

The international SWAIS2C project team successfully drilled a sediment core exceeding 200 meters beneath the Ross Ice Shelf — the deepest sub-ice-shelf seafloor core ever recovered. It contains roughly 23 million years of climate records, with sediment layers showing that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shrank dramatically and melted under warm conditions similar to today's. (Source: Inside Climate News)

Politics

Trump Orders 5-Day Halt to Military Strikes on Iran's Energy Infrastructure — Contingent on Talks

President Trump directed the Pentagon to "postpone any and all military strikes" against Iranian power and energy infrastructure for five days, "subject to success of ongoing meetings." The move marks a shift from the earlier 48-hour ultimatum to a negotiation track, and oil prices plunged 8% immediately after the announcement. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Taiwan to Produce 200,000 Drones and 1,000+ Unmanned Surface Vessels Under 8-Year Special Defense Budget

Taiwan plans to produce 200,000 domestically built drones and more than 1,000 unmanned surface vessels under a special defense budget spanning 2026-2033. The proposed budget totals $39.6 billion (NT$1.25 trillion), with the defense minister stating it would contribute to building a non-Chinese supply chain to counter China's dominance in the global drone market. (Source: Focus Taiwan)

US Government Shutdown Drags On — 50,000+ TSA Workers Go Unpaid, Over 400 Resign

The Department of Homeland Security has been without funding since mid-February 2026, leaving more than 50,000 TSA employees working without pay. Over 400 TSA workers have resigned since the shutdown began, with weekend absenteeism hitting peak levels and security wait times surging at major airports. (Source: CNBC)

Society

Samsung Electronics Union of 90,000 Votes 93.1% for May Strike — Demands Bonus Cap Removal and 7% Pay Hike

Samsung Electronics' union (approximately 90,000 members) voted 93.1% in favor of a May strike. The union is demanding the removal of the performance bonus cap, a 7% wage increase, and greater transparency in bonus calculations. (Source: Yonhap News)

Germany-India Labor Migration Expands Structurally — Indian Workers in Germany Up Sixfold in a Decade

The number of Indian workers in Germany grew from 23,320 in 2015 to 136,670 in 2024, a roughly sixfold increase. In late 2024, Germany expanded its skilled worker visa quota for Indians 4.5 times, from 20,000 to 90,000 per year. Germany's aging population requires 288,000 foreign workers annually — without them, the labor force is projected to shrink 10% by 2040. (Source: BBC)

25% of North Korean Defectors Near Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site Show Radiation-Linked Chromosomal Abnormalities

South Korea's Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences (KIRAMS) screened 174 North Korean defectors (2023-2025) from eight areas near the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, finding radiation-linked chromosomal abnormalities in 25% (44 individuals). In 2024 testing, 12 of 35 (34%) showed abnormalities. No radiation-related cancer diagnoses have been reported. (Source: Yonhap News)