Brent Breaks $113, Samsung Bets $73B on AI Chips, and Data Centers Are Flipping the Lithium Market

Investment Implications

AI Data Centers Are Fast-Tracking a Structural Reversal in Lithium Supply

The lithium market's supply-demand balance is flipping — and it's not EVs doing the flipping. Battery energy storage systems for AI data center backup power are the catalyst.

Lithium prices surged 120% over six months, reaching roughly $20,000 per ton. CATL's Jianxiawo mine suspension and post-Lunar New Year inventory shortages were the immediate triggers, but the structural story behind the rebound lies elsewhere.

Battery energy storage system (BESS) demand jumped 51% YoY in 2025. EV lithium demand growth over the same period was 26%. EVs still account for 75% of global battery demand, but the marginal growth is now coming from data centers. The scale speaks for itself: according to the IEA, data center investment hit $580 billion in 2025, surpassing global oil production investment ($540 billion).

BloombergNEF projects global lithium demand will grow 24% in 2026, while supply expansion is expected to reach only 19%. On the supply side, Africa produced more new lithium output in 2025 than the rest of the world combined, and ExxonMobil is investing up to $20 billion in the US Smackover formation — Western reshoring is accelerating. Yet IEA data shows critical mineral mining investment growth collapsed from 30% in 2022 to 5% in 2024, declining for three consecutive years. A 2-3 year lag before new supply catches up with demand is unavoidable.

Over the past few days, we've tracked how AI is shaking up semiconductor memory and platinum group metal markets. Today's data points to that ripple reaching lithium. The difference here is that lithium's supply-demand reversal is accelerating faster — BESS demand is stacking on top of the existing EV demand base. With China controlling 75% of Indonesian nickel refining and dominating rare earth metallization processes, companies investing in non-China lithium refining and processing infrastructure could be positioned to capture this bottleneck.

Key Developments

Technology

Semaglutide Users Show 42% Lower Risk of Worsening Mental Illness — Study of 95,000 Patients

A Finnish-Swedish-Australian study published in The Lancet Psychiatry found that GLP-1 semaglutide users showed a 44% reduction in depression risk, 38% lower anxiety risk, and 47% fewer hospitalizations and sick leaves related to substance use disorders. The observational study covered more than 95,000 individuals from 2009 to 2022. (Source: Euronews)

China Mass-Produces World's Smallest Atomic Clock (2.3cm³) — One-Seventh the Size of US Counterpart

A Wuhan University research team achieved mass production of a 2.3cm³ atomic clock. It is one-seventh the size of the leading US product (17cm³) and delivers precision of one second per 30,000 years. Applications include drone swarm operations, underwater navigation, and battlefield communications. (Source: South China Morning Post)

Economy

Alibaba Cloud Posts 10 Consecutive Quarters of Triple-Digit AI Product Revenue Growth

Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew 36% YoY to ¥43.3 billion. AI-related product revenue achieved over 100% growth for the tenth consecutive quarter. However, group-wide net income fell 66% YoY to ¥15.6 billion. (Source: CNBC)

Samsung Electronics Commits Record KRW 110T to AI Semiconductors, Breaking KRW 100T Barrier for First Time

Samsung Electronics will invest KRW 110T (approximately $73.3 billion) in AI semiconductor R&D and facilities in 2026. That's a 21.7% increase from the prior year (KRW 90.4T) and marks the first time annual investment has exceeded KRW 100T. (Source: Yonhap News)

Goldman Sachs Warns of Potential HBM Price Slowdown for Micron by 2027

Goldman Sachs flagged meaningful HBM supply expansion expected in 2027 as a potential risk to pricing momentum. Micron shares fell roughly 5.3% in premarket trading despite reporting a threefold increase in recent quarterly revenue. (Source: CNBC)

Brent Crude Surges 5.5% to $113.53, Analysts See $150 If War Persists

The oil price rally triggered by Iran's retaliatory strikes on Qatari LNG facilities continues. Brent crude futures reached $113.53 per barrel, spiking as high as $119 intraday before settling at $114. Kpler analysts suggested prices could exceed $150 if the war continues through the end of March. (Source: South China Morning Post, OilPrice, BBC)

European TTF Gas Spikes as Hormuz Blockade Threatens 20% of Global LNG Supply

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is threatening approximately 20 million barrels per day, with the LNG market in an even more vulnerable position — potentially losing 20% of global supply. The European TTF gas benchmark approached €55 per MWh, while US gas prices rose over 3% to $3.164 per mmBtu. (Source: Seeking Alpha, OilPrice)

Malaysia Declares US Trade Deal 'Null and Void' — Walks Back $240B Investment Pledge

A Malaysian minister declared the reciprocal trade agreement with the Trump administration "null and void." If confirmed, Malaysia would become the first country to withdraw from such a deal. The country had pledged $240 billion in investment and purchases in exchange for a tariff reduction from 24% to 19%. (Source: The Diplomat)

LG Display Returns to Profit After Four Years — OLED Revenue Share Reaches 61%

LG Display posted KRW 517B in operating profit for 2025, returning to profitability for the first time since 2021. OLED business revenue share expanded from 32% in 2020 to 61% in 2025. The company plans approximately KRW 2T in capital expenditure for 2026. (Source: Yonhap News)

Samsung Life to Sell KRW 1.3T in Samsung Electronics Shares for Financial Governance Compliance

Samsung Life Insurance plans to sell KRW 1.3T (approximately $867 million) worth of Samsung Electronics shares. The move aims to reduce regulatory risk by complying with Korea's financial governance regulations. (Source: Seeking Alpha)

Canadian Solar Swings to Loss in Q4 — Solar Module Shipments Plunge 47%

Canadian Solar reported a Q4 net loss of $86 million, reversing from net income of $34 million a year earlier. Revenue fell 20% YoY to $1.2 billion, while solar module shipments plunged 47% to 4.3GW. (Source: Nasdaq)

Red Sea Shipping Still at 60% of Pre-Attack Levels Despite Houthi Ceasefire

Even after Houthi attacks ceased in October 2025, the perception that the route remains dangerous has kept shipping recovery slow. The same pattern is expected to apply to the Strait of Hormuz — risk premiums are likely to remain structurally embedded in oil and gas prices even after the war ends. (Source: Economic Times India)

Australia Launches Regulatory Reform to Prevent Gas Network 'Death Spiral'

Australia's Energy Market Commission (AEMC) announced regulatory reforms to prevent a vicious cycle where customers switching from gas to renewables push higher costs onto remaining users. The new rules aim to ensure stranded asset costs are not passed on to consumers. (Source: RenewEconomy)

Politics

Hanwha Aerospace Becomes First Korean Company to Join Estonia's Defense and Aerospace Industry Association

Following deliveries of K9 self-propelled howitzers (2020) and Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers (2025), the company is deepening R&D and supply chain cooperation. This marks the first case of a Korean defense firm officially joining a European defense industry network. (Source: Yonhap News)

Freedom House: Global Freedom Declines for 20th Consecutive Year — US Drops to 81, Lowest in 50+ Years

According to the Freedom House "Freedom in the World 2026" report, the US fell 3 points to 81 — its lowest score in over 50 years. Taiwan maintained its position as Asia's second-freest territory at 93 points, trailing only Japan at 96. (Source: Focus Taiwan)

USS Gerald R. Ford ($13B Build Cost) Suffers 30-Hour Fire, Heads to Greece for Repairs

A fire aboard the US Navy's newest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier destroyed sleeping quarters for more than 600 personnel. The ship had been continuously deployed at sea for nine months and already suffered a plumbing failure in January that left toilets unusable. A core military asset has entered repair mode in the middle of the Iran war. (Source: South China Morning Post)

EU Summit: Orbán Effectively Blocks €90B Ukraine Aid Loan

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán blocked implementation despite a 27-member state agreement reached in December 2025, citing an oil pipeline dispute. Multiple leaders including those from Finland and France criticized the move as "election campaign hostage-taking." (Source: Al Jazeera)

Trump Administration Discusses Ground Troop Deployment to Seize Iran's Kharg Island

Ground troop deployment is being discussed to seize Kharg Island, which handles approximately 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Military analysts assess that seizing rather than destroying the island makes more strategic and economic sense, but describe the operation as "extremely risky" given Iran's missile and drone strike capabilities. (Source: LiveMint)

South Korea's Unification Ministry Begins Five-Year Inter-Korean Relations Plan Under Lee Jae-myung Government

The plan sets "peaceful coexistence" as its core objective, contrasting with the previous Yoon Suk-yeol government's denuclearization-centered approach. The unification minister emphasized that "the policy goal is peace itself." (Source: Yonhap News)

Social

UN Warns Iran War Puts Additional 45 Million at Risk of Acute Hunger

Rising food, oil, and shipping costs are projected to push the global acute hunger population beyond the record 319 million. The Iran war is delivering a direct shock to global food security. (Source: Al Jazeera)

Mediterranean Migrant Deaths Hit 655 in Jan-Feb 2026, More Than Double Year-Ago Levels

Despite a decrease in crossing attempts, the fatality rate surged to record levels. The figure more than doubled from 287 in the same period last year. (Source: South China Morning Post)

South Korean Marriages Hit 240,300 — Highest in Seven Years, but Average First-Marriage Age Keeps Rising

Marriages in 2025 rose 8.1% from the prior year (222,400), marking three consecutive years of growth. The figure recovered to pre-COVID levels (239,200 in 2019), but the average age at first marriage continues to climb — 33.9 for men and 31.6 for women, rising steadily over the past decade. (Source: Yonhap News)