Ruthenium Hits All-Time High as $700B AI Investment Exposes PGM Supply Crunch

Investment Implications

The Market Bought the GPUs. Nobody Budgeted for the Ruthenium.

On the same day that the four tech hyperscalers announced a combined $700 billion in AI infrastructure investment for 2026, ruthenium — a critical material in data center hard drives — hit an all-time high. The market is focused on GPUs and software. The physical supply bottleneck is showing up somewhere else first.

The day Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta announced a combined $700 billion in AI infrastructure capex for 2026, ruthenium spot prices hit an all-time high of $1,750 per ounce — more than triple the $560 price a year ago, per LSEG and Johnson Matthey.

Ruthenium is an essential component of the magnetic layer in HDDs used in data centers. More AI servers, more storage demand, more ruthenium. The physical demand AI infrastructure creates is now showing up in the data — the same four hyperscalers also saw their permanent carbon removal credit purchases surge 4,817-fold, another signal that AI expansion is generating real-world resource demand at scale.

The problem is on the supply side. Ruthenium is only produced as a byproduct of platinum group metal (PGM) mining — you can't open a ruthenium-only mine. Metals Focus projects a 2026 supply shortfall of 203,000 ounces. South Africa, which accounts for more than 70% of global PGM supply, saw production fall 3.8% YoY as of January 2025. This is the structural result of two decades of underinvestment in new mines.

The broader context makes this more uncomfortable. According to IEA World Energy Outlook 2025, 19 of the world's 20 critical minerals have refining dominated by a single country at an average rate exceeding 70%. Ruthenium is following the same pattern. Add AI demand to an already fragile single-country dependency structure — with geopolitical tensions already reshaping global mineral markets and governments rushing to build strategic stockpiles — and you have a system under stress.

While AI investment momentum concentrates on GPUs and software, the physical supply bottleneck is showing up first in PGM materials like ruthenium. PGM mining and refining stands to absorb that benefit.

Key Developments

Technology

AI Directly Cited in More Than 12,000 US Layoffs in 2026

Meta is considering cutting more than 20% of its roughly 79,000-person workforce, citing AI automation as an explicit rationale. Year-to-date AI-related layoffs have exceeded 12,000, per Challenger Gray & Christmas — including Block (4,000 in February) and Amazon (16,000 in January). (Source: CNBC)

South Korea Allocates KRW 2.08T for Additional AI GPU Procurement in 2026

Following the acquisition of 13,000 units in 2025, South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT is pursuing an additional GPU procurement worth approximately $1.39 billion under its 2026 budget. The government-led push to build AI computing infrastructure continues. (Source: Yonhap)

Four Tech Hyperscalers Plan Combined $700B in AI Infrastructure Capex for 2026

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta have disclosed plans to deploy a combined $700 billion in AI-related capex this year. Meta is simultaneously considering a large-scale workforce reduction to offset the costs. (Source: CNBC)

Economy

Zero Ships Cross the Strait of Hormuz — A First Since the Blockade Began

Shipping analytics firm Windward data shows daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero, down from a seven-day average of 2.57 vessels. The energy supply shock is deepening as roughly one-fifth of global LNG production capacity remains offline due to the Qatar-UAE conflict. (Source: South China Morning Post, OilPrice)

South Korea Raises Nuclear Plant Utilization to 80% in Emergency Energy Pivot

South Korea's ruling party announced measures to raise nuclear power plant utilization to a maximum of 80%, alongside lifting restrictions on coal-fired generation capacity. The move is an emergency energy policy response to the supply shock from the Hormuz blockade. (Source: Economic Times India)

KOSPI Closes at 5,549.85, Up 1.14% Led by Semiconductor Stocks

South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index rose 62.61 points, led by Samsung Electronics (+2.83%) and SK Hynix (+7.03%). The KRW/USD exchange rate hit 1,497.5 won — its weakest level since March 2009 — with the won depreciating 3.84% against the dollar in March. (Source: Yonhap, Yonhap, Yonhap)

US Q4 GDP Revised Down to 0.7% as Core PCE Holds at 3.1%, Well Above Fed Target

US Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised down to 0.7% from the initial estimate of 1.4%, halving the figure. Full-year growth came in at 2.1%, slowing from 2.8% in 2024. January core PCE rose 3.1% YoY — well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target — pushing the expected timeline for rate cuts further out. (Source: Nasdaq)

47% of US Generic Drugs Are Made in India — the Hormuz Blockade Is Now a Pharma Problem

About 47% of generic drugs — which account for 90% of all US prescriptions — are sourced from India. The Hormuz blockade has now cancelled 4,335 Indian airline flights and spiked air freight costs, raising the risk that the supply shock is spreading into pharmaceutical supply chains. (Source: CNBC, The Hindu)

Politics

South Korea Sets Fuel Price Caps: Gasoline at KRW 1,724/L, Diesel at KRW 1,713/L

South Korea's government imposed fuel price caps in response to the Middle East crisis: gasoline at KRW 1,724/L, diesel at KRW 1,713/L, and kerosene at KRW 1,320/L. The measure is being implemented alongside the nuclear utilization increase as part of a multi-pronged energy stabilization effort. (Source: Yonhap)

Saudi Arabia Intercepts 60+ Iranian Projectiles as Gulf Conflict Spreads

Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry reported intercepting more than 60 Iranian projectiles targeting its territory in the first hours of Monday. The development shows the conflict spreading beyond the Iran-Israel-US dynamic into Gulf states. (Source: BBC)

Pentagon to Ban Chinese Rare Earths From Defense Supply Chains Starting 2027

The Pentagon finalized a policy banning Chinese rare earths across all stages of defense supply chains — including mining, refining, separation, smelting, and production — effective January 1, 2027. Ukraine produced 1.2 million combat drones last year alone; nearly all of those drones' magnets were Chinese. The structural pressure to de-China rare earth supply chains is intensifying. (Source: OilPrice)

North Korea Earns Up to $14.4B in Hard Currency From Russia Deployment and Arms Exports

North Korea earned up to $14.4 billion in hard currency from troop deployments and arms exports to Russia between August 2023 and December 2025, according to estimates from South Korea's Korea Institute for National Security Strategy. More than 20,000 troops have been deployed in four rounds since October 2024. (Source: Yonhap)

Society

South Korea's African Swine Fever Hits 22 Cases in 3 Months — a New Annual Record

South Korea's ASF outbreak count in 2026 reached 22 cases in just three months, setting a new annual record. That compares with just 17 combined cases over the full two-year period of 2024–2025. Pork supply disruptions and upward price pressure could follow. (Source: Yonhap)